Guide Metallographer:6.17黄金翻云覆雨之后，周五关注冲高回落

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Thursday(6month16day)，一位市场分析师说，尽管美联储打算今年加息至近3.5%，明年可能加息至4%，但黄金市场仍处于健康状态。

　　道富环球投资顾问公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席黄金策略师George Milling-StanleyAcceptingKitco News采访时表示，在美联储加息75Basis points(This is28年来最大的加息幅度)后，金价表现良好，对此他并不感到意外。

　　上个月通货膨胀率达到8.6%of40年新高，促使美联储积极收紧货币政策。不过，Milling-Stanley表示，黄金投资者开始认识到，美联储及其领导人鲍威尔的处境非常危险。

　　“美联储正在走一条非常狭窄的钢丝，”他说。“鲍威尔希望遏制一些需求问题，以降低通胀，但他不想把经济推入衰退。”

　　Milling-Stanley补充称，美联储最终做出的任何决定都将对黄金有利。“如果美联储加息的速度不够快，那么通货膨胀将继续上升，如果加息太快，他们将面临经济衰退的风险。这两种情况都对黄金有利。无论如何，黄金投资者都是赢家。”

　　美国经济面临的不断上升的风险也反映在美联储最新的经济预测中。美联储预计，未来两年美国国内生产总值(GDP)Will grow1.7%，远低于此前分别预测的2.8%and2.2%。

　　尽管美联储激进的货币政策立场将开始推高实际收益率，这对黄金这种无收益资产不利，但Milling-Stanley表示，投资者需要继续关注更大的前景。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金日线上看，昨日金价面对美联储大举加息的情况，日线给出大涨，但目前价格暂时压制在200日均线下方，趋势并非转为多头，更多的是震荡偏弱的格局，MACD快慢线粘合，日线整体缺乏方向指引。金价在美联储决议后大幅上涨，并一度突破看涨的头肩底形态颈线位1838In addition,MACD指标传递乐观信号。目前多头希望金价再度突破颈线位，以确认头肩底形态。整体来看，今日黄金以震荡偏多格局对待；

From4小时来看，黄金触底反弹，延续上行之势，直到接近1833一线隔夜高点才有所减弱，随后短线修复后继续冲高至1836一线开始回落。加之凌晨美联储纪要以及包威尔讲话的驱使下，黄金回踩后继续踏入反弹道路上运行，最高反弹至1852一线，那么今日我们该如何研判呢！首先我们先看大趋势是多还是空，在结合小周期走势，给日内布局提供最有价值的做单思路。那么4小时图中就是今日的思路，认定目前整体行情从新回归宽松震荡之中，震荡依旧没有改变。因高点和低点分割线50位置从新归位，那么事实证明宽松震荡是必然。加之实体K线已经站上1830-1833一线。所以今日选择回踩至台阶支撑位1830-1833一线看涨，反弹次高点1860-1862附近做空为辅的思路来进行操作。综上所述指南金师总结：黄金今日操作思路上建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1862-1867Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1835-1830Frontline support.

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