Guo Shengshan:6.16黄金还会涨吗，今日黄金原油解析

　goldMarket trend analysis:

　　现货黄金窄幅震荡于1830上方，守住了隔夜大部分涨幅，虽然美联储周三加息75个基点，一度令金价承压，但美联储预计未来几个月经济增长会放缓，而且美联储淡化了7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点的预期，令美元和美债收益率大幅回落，再加上零售销售数据表现不佳，俄乌地缘局势紧张，黄金多头大举反攻，金价最高触及1841.69dollar/盎司，逼近200Daily moving average.

　　从盘面来看，黄金昨日低位反弹收高，日线双阴线下挫后转大阳线线收复失地，将前一日下跌失地尽数收回，守住1805走反弹，美盘稍晚时段配合消息面的刺激。形成二次下探回升收高。日线回归区间内拉锯震荡，不是单边胜似单边。短期内来回拉锯，波动基数较大，单日的幅度也就较大。日线阳吞阴继续回归区间内震荡，不过趋势整体处于向下当中，虽有反抽，但结构上还是处于下行趋势的蓄势。

Currently4The hours are still in a periodic wide range of sawing oscillations, and the substantive range has not been effectively broken through, accompanied by a back and forth sawing wash. Technical structural passivation. The news side factor causes short-term tugs of war to recur, and the overall structure still tends to be downward. It's just a slow and winding process. With previous highs and lows being tested to test lows, the short term may also be accompanied by repeated highs and lows to build momentum to break lows. And the price has returned to the vicinity of the Bollinger Road mid track, with a neutral position fluctuating and resistance on the upper track1866The lower rail is1795。宽幅区间内等待突破。短期暂时难走出单边，操作上以超短线卡点应对，亚盘区间待定。综合来看，关注上方短期1842-1847Pressure, following below1820-1815支撑。亚盘操作上建议高空低多。

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

Thursday（6month16During the Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting116.64dollar/桶，油价周三下跌超2.7%，美联储加息，并预计预计经济增长将放缓，给原油近期的上涨增添阻力，加之上周美国原油库存意外增加，拖累油价走低。美国能源信息署(EIA)On Wednesday, as of6month10日的一周，美国原油和馏分油库存增加，汽油库存下降。上周原油库存意外增加200Ten thousand barrels, to4.187亿桶，路透调查预估为减少130万桶。不过，战略石油储备(SPR)中的原油库存骤降770万桶，为有记录以来的最大降幅。EIA称，俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油库存上周减少82.6万桶，上周炼厂加工量下降6.710000 barrels/日。炼厂产能利用率下降0.5个百分点。汽油库存意外减少70Ten thousand barrels, to2.175亿桶，路透调查中分析师预估为增加110Ten thousand barrels.EIA数据显示，包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存增加70Ten thousand barrels, to1.097Billion barrels, estimated to increase30万桶。上周美国原油净进口量下降66.210000 barrels/日。美联储以10than1的投票比例同意加息75个基点，并重申持续加息将是合适的。加息75个基点不会是常态化的操作，利率上升可能导致经济增长放缓，给原油近期的上涨增添阻力。总体来看，库存增加，美联储加息为空头助力；但地缘紧张局势持续，莫斯科进一步对欧洲最大买主供气量锐减，或使得油价短期跌幅有限。

　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日探高回落收低，先行摸高位123.68高点受阻力承压之后回落，尾盘时段受压回落再收低位，探高不破高这也是原油的一贯作风，同时昨日也是破了此前的回踩低点，日线处于高位整理转换当中，有一定回落风险，4小时在次走出探高回落式的阴吐阳，慢性上涨配合快速回落，看强不强，看弱转换当中，伴随着反复迂回，短线有探高回落的风险，随着震荡的加剧，连续探高承压之后会形成短暂的高点受阻，昨日触碰上轨之后快速走低，显示出短线上行力度不足，而回落也受到了日线中轨的支撑，短线与日线出现分化，日线处于多头上行通道中蓄势整理，而4Hourlyk线结构显示，短线上行放缓，有转换回落迹象，局部可能出现多空切换，留意形态的转换，综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上郭晟衫建议以反弹做空为主，上方短期重点关注120.0-121.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below114.0-113.0Frontline support.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.