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gold消息面解读:
黄金保持窄幅震荡。瑞士信贷分析师报告称,若再次注入下行动能,金价则需要跌破1,787USD.
随着世界各国央行收紧货币政策为飙升的通胀降温,金价涨幅基本受到限制。投资者现在等待周五将公布的核心消费者物价指数(CPI)对美国利率的影响。
According to Reuters(Reuters)调查的经济学家的预期中值显示,继4月份同比上涨6.2%之后,今年CPI预计将同比上涨5.9%。
Thursday(6month9day),国际金价承压,受制于美债收益率上升,降低了非孳息黄金的吸引力。投资者在美国通胀数据公布前保持谨慎,该数据料影响美联储加息路径。IMF官员认为,通胀预期存在“脱锚”的风险。要缓解商品和劳动力供给紧张的状况,可能需要更大幅度地提高利率。美国5月通胀数据将在周五(6month10day)公布。市场预计,美国5月整体与核心CPI料分别同比上涨8.3%and5.9%。美联储激进加息前景很难动摇。美联储6Month and7月料延续5月加息节奏,继续各加息50个基点。目前市场充满不确定性,金价短期维持区间震荡格局。但4月份以来,金价下行趋势明显……几乎没有什么催化剂可以让金价向上突破,未来几个月整体下行趋势更有可能持续。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金周四先短暂的一波回弹,测压至1855一线后再度表现回修态势。晚盘前因欧央行利率决定符合预期,行情波动并不是很大,且状态略显偏弱,再度回撤1843附近,如果黄金跌回20Daily line1842以下,那么日线级别的整体结构或有可能改变。黄金技术上略显偏空,或者说多头信心和动能不是很足,虽然欧央行7、9月加息计划可能会刺激市场看多欧元,看空美元,但是以现有状态来看,实际影响却可能有限,不太会给黄金带来太多的回升动能,所以对于黄金能否借助20日线支撑进行回弹还是要持怀疑和谨慎态度的。上方则关注1856短压,如果行情能站回其上,则短线行情看涨结构会有所转强,但是日线结构上其依旧不太可能有太多回升空间。综上所述,今日操作上指南金师建议反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1860-1865一线压力,下方重点关注1840-1835Frontline support
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