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goldMessage interpretation:
根据市场统计,美联储6Monthly interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is97.2%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is2.8%,市场普遍一致认为美联储在6月份会持续快速加息。隔日澳联储在议息会议上宣布加息50个基点,将现金利率目标上调至0.85%,超过市场预期25个基点加息,澳联储在声明中强调,澳大利亚近期通胀增幅明显,虽然目前通胀低于大部分发达经济体,但是高于此前的预期,为应对未来通胀可能持续恶化,迫使快速加息,加息升温利空金银,可能会导致金银易跌难涨。
美国财政部长耶伦对参议员表示,美国面临“不可接受的通胀水平”,需要采取适当的预算立场在不损害经济的情况下帮助抑制通胀压力。目前通胀可能保持在高位,市场预计两方面可以缓解,一方面是疏通供应链,一方面是加息。应对供应链不通,目前有逐渐降低关税措施,加息上持续跟踪6月份的利率决议结果。本周周五即将公布美国5monthCPI,市场预计8.2%,虽然略低于前值,但依然处于高位。如果高通胀不能缓解,加息升温预期加强,提防利空金银,具体结果周五一起看结果。
Gold trend analysis:
黄金日线走势图上看,黄金依托上行趋势线重返1850大关收尾,日线布林三轨缩口运行,短期还是有望继续震荡。从近期规律来看都是两连阳和两连阴的走势,既然隔日收阳突破了布林中轨,那么今日若是根据规律也会收阳。个人预期本周黄金应该先跌一波才是,1858不能突破新高的可能性不大。月线顶部一根冲高回落倒锤子线之后连收两阴,由此奠定了6月份看空势头,那么依照当前的走势月线很有可能就是个震荡回落收尾。今日1858之下都是压力,下方关注1838附近支撑,破位看1831。综上所述指南金师总结:黄金在高位遇阻后出现了震荡反弹,当前空头阻力位依旧成立,所以今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以高空低多为主,上方短期关注1860-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1842-1837Frontline support.
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