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　　昨日晚间(2022year6month7day)，美国公布数据显示，美国4月贸易逆差下降19.1%to871亿美元，下降幅度为近九年半以来最大，逆转了3月份的飙升势头，表明贸易可能正在回到一种更正常的模式。同时，世界银行将2022年全球经济增长预估下调1.2Percentage points to2.9%，并警告称全球经济增长正受各种风险的冲击，许多国家可能面临经济衰退，目前全球经济可能正进入增长疲弱、通胀上升的漫长时期。尽管随着经济增长放缓，经济下滑的危险有所上升，但部分经济学家认为，鉴于就业市场持续强劲以及家庭资产负债表上逾2万亿美元的过剩现金，经济近期不太可能出现收缩。因此，市场对经济的担忧反而为gold提供一定支撑。

　　昨日晚间(2022year6month7day)，美国财政部长耶伦对参议员表示，美国面临不可接受的通胀水平，需要采取适当的预算立场在不损害经济的情况下帮助抑制通胀压力。但是，美联储连续性加息已经导致金融状况整体收紧，经济出现明显承压。数据显示，当前美国房地产市场受此影响较大。市场担忧美联储加息打压通胀的同时，可能会给经济增长带来负面后果。不过到目前为止，消费者和投资者普遍还相信美联储能够降低通胀。美联储为了控制通胀，大概率会持续加息并对黄金形成长期打压。

Gold trend analysis:

　　黄金从日线上来看，黄金连续第二个交易日下跌，并挑战关键支撑区域。50日均线即将跌破100日均线，从而形成看空交叉，看跌的20日移动平均线与200日移动平均线趋于汇合，假如跌破这一区域，这可能加剧金价跌势。早盘下跌至1836止跌，晚间最高触及1853后回落，多空延续性不足，日线级别阴阳切换比较频繁，上下都没有太好的延续性，基本围绕1836-1870做震荡，短线来看，短期关注1836-38区域支撑，逢低买入多单，阻力关注1858as well as1862区域；如果向上突破，则继续上看1870突破，进一步1885as well as1900以上。对于下方，如1836-38不能支撑，则关注回撤1830区域再涨。与此同时，动能指标正在中性水平内整固，而相对强弱指标(RSI)指标已经转向下行，目前在1850上下左右，这与金价将进一步下跌观点一致。

Gold from4小时线来看，黄金继续看震荡，技术指标在负值区域内明显下跌。金价目前正跌破100周期移动平均线，而200周期移动平均线在远高于当前金价的水平维持看空倾向。整体来看，黄金走势仍处于震荡状态，黄金主力交投1850Area, intraday time correction position at1858-1860位置，该位置在午夜会存在一定压制。下方低多进场的区域在1841-1843之间，该位置是黄金低位横盘整理的聚集日低，会存在有效支撑。综合来看，今日黄金操作思路指南金师建议以高空低多思路为主，上方短期关注1863-1868Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1842-1837Frontline support.

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