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goldMessage interpretation:
Tuesday(6month7day)现货黄金震荡上涨目前在1850关口附近徘徊,市场普遍预期美国通胀数据可能强化美联储大幅升息的理由,美元和美债收益率震荡走高,美元指数刷新四日高点,美国10年轻国债收益率创近四周新高,令美元承压明显。而且,市场对美国经济衰退的预期降温,也略微打压避险需求。不过,地缘局势依然紧张,令空头仍有点顾忌。
本周五的CPI通胀数据料将显示通胀仍处于高位,在此之前,美国国债收益率走高。美元也走强,令黄金对海外买家的吸引力下降。尽管黄金被认为是对冲通胀的工具,但为缓和不断上升的物价压力而上调的利率,削弱了人们对非孽息黄金的兴趣。美联储有望在6Month and7月的政策会议上加息50个基点,但如果通胀数据高企,则会加大美联储甚至在今年下半年大举收紧货币政策的预期。
Technical analysis of gold:
日线双连阴收低,延续上周五的承压回落,同时收盘在低位,今日开盘即延续下跌。从日线来看,此前的反弹仍是下跌趋势中的修正,在修正之后收在低位则重新转为弱势,目前日线再次靠近年线位置,此前下探之后快速反抽进行修正,目前中期均线已被拉动拐头向下。整体还是处于下行趋势当中。4The hourly roller coaster retracement takes back all the previous upward momentum, and today it will once again approach last week's low point1828.This lost position will lead to1800关口回落靠近,目前经过上周五的冲高回落,带动指标拐头向下,而昨日延续回落后,已回吐近半空间,今日再逼近则有望失守向下延续回落,目前连阴式的震荡下跌也显示短线相对偏弱一些,所以综合分析操作上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,上方关注1853-1858短期阻力,下方关注1825-1830Support.
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