Guo Shengshan:6.7晚间黄金走势分析，原油独家操作建议

　goldLatest market trends:

Monday(6month6day)，国际金价小幅走高，受美元指数回调支撑。但金价未来走势仍然容易受到全球主要央行大幅加息的影响。此前公布的美国非农就业报告乐观，强化了美联储鹰派预期，利空贵金属。策略师表示：“在最新的美国非农就业报告公布后，市场参与者将继续对央行政策前景的任何线索保持高度关注，本周的CPI数据将为市场研判美联储政策信号的提供新的依据。”周五(6month3day)，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，非农就业人口增加39Ten thousand people, higher than expected32.8万人，这使得黄金市场承压下跌。较预期强劲的非农数据意味着市场很可能会提高利率预期。事实上，报告发布后，整个曲线的利率(名义和实际)都在上升。这使得黄金价格从报告发布前的1863-66美元下降到1860美元以下。对黄金而言，乐观的就业数据意味着美联储可以继续积极推进6Month and7Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的计划。经济没有迅速走软，这打消了人们对避险资产的需求。也就是说，短期内美联储的激进立场仍是对黄金构成下行风险的主要影响因素。

From a technical perspective, gold,4小时级别震荡；留意布林线轨道1829.22-1874.56Regional breakthrough situation. at presentMACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，后市略微偏向震荡下行，初步支撑在1844Nearby, further support at1837.98附近，然后是布林线下轨1829.22附近支撑，能否进一步下破还有待观察。上方初步阻力在1856.60Nearby, then1863.33附近阻力，若能收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号；布林线上轨阻力在1874.55附近，若能顶破该阻力，则增加中线看涨信号。日线图上看，金价处于自1828The upward trend of the US dollar opening((C))浪中。小时图上看，金价处于自1847The upward trend of the US dollar opening3Wave, upward resistance looking towards38.2%Target bit1864USD.3Waves are((C))浪的子浪。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上郭晟衫建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1865-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1835-1830Frontline support.

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　6month7During the Japanese Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting119.21dollar/Barrel; International oil prices hit a record high during trading on Monday3A new high since the beginning of the month,WTIcrude oilfuturesThe highest price hit during the trading session120.99US dollars. Organization of oil producing countriesOPEC+上周宣布额外增产的决定后，欧佩克最大生产商沙特决定上调7月出口原油售价，强化了外界对于北半球夏季消费需求的预期。从世界范围看，炼油能力短缺是普遍现象。沙特王储萨勒曼上月指出，全球炼油产能投资不足是汽油、柴油和航空燃料价格上涨的关键驱动因素之一。瓦尔加预计，新增炼油产能需要到2023年才能逐步上线，因此未来几个月美国依然将面临紧张的能源供应形势和高昂的成品油价格。郭晟衫认为；随着美国夏季驾驶季的开始以及中国的疫情控制，需求前景得到显著提振，而欧盟对俄罗斯石油进口禁令及OPEC+自身实际产能因素则显示供应面的困境。很多迹象都表明，市场基本面正在收紧，油价短期有望维持震荡向上的格局。

Technical analysis of crude oil; Yesterday, the small negative line of crude oil fell and closed lower. The daily line was accompanied by a fluctuating correction of double positive and one negative. The small negative line retreat is a correction, and the current space has not seen a peak or reversal, only a brief correction, and the closing is still above the moving average. It is not advisable to guess the peak too early in the short term, unless the daily line is accompanied by a rapid rebound and a close. At present, it is only at a high level of chronic consolidation, and horizontal consolidation is gaining momentum.4The correction was made for a small pullback in the hour, with a series of Yin style pullbacks, but the closing was temporarily above the mid trackKAlthough there is even yin in the thread, it is all small yinKThe line has not retreated due to the large Yin, making the strength of today still uncertain. It is necessary to make greater efforts to measure the strength. Looking weak requires spatial coordination. Yesterday's Little YinK线只是当作钝化整理修正。多空切换多留意形态的转换。短线结构还处于上升通道当中。短线暂定思路维持回调看多，欧盘结合形态定强弱延续。目前守住高位整理，仍有惯性的走高趋势。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上郭晟衫建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注121.0-121.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below117.0-116.5Frontline support.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.