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goldInterpretation of message surface:
Monday(6month6day),国际金价小幅走高,受美元指数回调支撑,短线上看1864美元。但金价未来走势仍然容易受到全球主要央行大幅加息的影响。此前公布的美国非农就业报告乐观,强化了美联储鹰派预期,利空贵金属。
Beijing Time15:06,现货黄金上浮0.18%to1854.65dollar/Ounces;COMEX期金主力合约上涨0.38%to1857.2dollar/盎司;美元指数下跌0.22%to101.956。
金价上周五(6month3day)set up5month9New high in recent days1873.99dollar/盎司,但美国5月非农报告公布后收跌近1%,因美国雇主在5月份雇工数量超预期,强化了美联储6Month and7月延续5月政策的可能性,即每次会议继续加息50Basis points.
在美国通胀报告公布前黄金多头尝试回归。油价持续走强帮助金价寻得支撑,恢复其需求以对冲能源成本驱动的通胀担忧。
IGMarket StrategistYeap Jun Rong表示:“在最新的美国非农就业报告公布后,市场参与者将继续对央行政策前景的任何线索保持高度关注,每周的CPI数据将为市场研判美联储政策信号的提供新的依据。”
惠誉集团在的研报中表示:“黄金正受益于俄乌冲突,这导致地缘政治不确定性、通胀上升和衰退担忧加剧,各国央行希望提高利率以冷却需求并抑制通胀。”
上周收盘后显示,COMEXgoldfutures未平仓合约和成交量齐跌,暗示短期内价格继续下跌的机率不大。不过位于1840Near the US dollar200日简单移动均线构成不错的支撑。
黄金技术面走势分析:
黄金上周五探高回落收低,日线收成中阴回吐线,将前一日上涨空间尽数回吐。形成阴吞阳,不过近期处于震荡周期,这种阴包阳的K线形态反倒不是太明显的信号,反复拉锯,隔日可能又存在收复的可能,此前也是反复上演阴吞阳线,再阳线反吞阴线。形成拉锯式洗盘。周线上周收成一根十字K线。周线第三周,作为强弱拐点,并未给出明显信号,十字K线收盘,短期多空均衡。日线探高不收高,局部也处于向下趋势中的反弹修正,反弹不收在高位,相对还是震荡偏弱。 4小时一波连阴式回吐,重新回到布要道中轨附近震荡,局部单边力度不足,虽有破高,但仍未收稳在1865上方,随着日线和4小时收低,短线亚欧盘相对偏回落一些,但是空间大小。还需要结合盘中力度和形态转换,区间来回拉锯,暂时还是超短线应对。1小时图均线指标凌乱发散,短线震荡依旧,暂时看不出单边延续。回落收低后先看二次延续,小周期二浪释放空间和再走反弹,以此反复。综上总结:今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方短期关注1865-1870Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.
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