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goldMessage surface:
上周黄金围绕时间循环和区间切换进行扫荡运行,周一周二承压下跌,周三周四支撑上涨,周五再度承压下跌,有消息面上的推动,也有技术面上的区间压制。
小非农ADP数据爆冷,支撑黄金反弹走高,回踩确定1850关口向上攀升至1870Gateway;
非农数据表现靓丽,打压黄金承压下跌,反弹确定1868的阻力向下跌至1847Area;
周四周五的消息行情属于延续性的行情,空间在20美元左右,既有消息影响,也有对欧盘的时间循环。
最终价格还是徘徊在1850关口结束当周的行情。
本周市场需关注美国5月消费者物价指数也就是通胀CPI数据,上周的非农就业数据报告表现靓丽,增强了美联储加息的信心,若本周的通胀数据仍是表现靓丽,开始高位回落,那么下周美联储利率决议或将宣布更加激进或是更长的加息路劲,从而实现刺激经济,增加就业和抑制通胀的目标。因此本周需要重点留意。
(6month6日)亚市盘初,现货黄金暂时在1850关口附近徘徊,上周出炉的美国5月非农就业报告好于预期,给美元提供支撑,令金价承压明显,值得注意的是,在美国非农就业人数(NFP)出乎市场意料之后,上周五黄金价格下跌1.0%左右。克利夫兰联储主席洛雷塔·梅斯特的鹰派言论,也对金价构成下行压力。也就是说,5月份美国非农就业人数为390KHigher than expected325K,但低于上修后的428K。此外,失业率维持在3.6%不变,而预期略有下降至3.5%. In addition,5Month USAISM服务业采购经理人指数跌至55.9, and4月份市场共识为56.4and57.1。另方面据路透社报道,美联储的梅斯特表示:美联储面临的一个问题是通胀。消息指出,政策制定者还补充说,经济衰退的风险已经上升。梅斯特还提到,她支持在6Month and7Monthly interest rate increase50个基点,但在9月的会议上不排除这种可能性,但这将取决于数据。她说,如果她看到令人信服的通胀下降证据,那9Monthly interest rate hike25个基点将是合适的。在这些交易中,华尔街基准收盘下跌,而美国10年期国债收益率在三周内首次出现每周上涨。接下来,欧洲央行(ECB)货币政策会议与美国消费者物价指数(CPI),是本周的关键数据/事件,因为有传言称央行行长正在积极抑制物价压力,这反过来可能打压金价。
Gold trend analysis:
黄金上周五探高回落收低,日线收成中阴回吐线,将前一日上涨空间尽数回吐。形成阴吞阳,不过近期处于震荡周期,这种阴包阳的K线形态反倒不是太明显的信号,反复拉锯,隔日可能又存在收复的可能,此前也是反复上演阴吞阳线,再阳线反吞阴线。形成拉锯式洗盘。周线上周收成一根十字K线。周线第三周,作为强弱拐点,并未给出明显信号,十字K线收盘,短期多空均衡。日线探高不收高,局部也处于向下趋势中的反弹修正,反弹不收在高位,相对还是震荡偏弱。 4小时一波连阴式回吐,重新回到布要道中轨附近震荡,局部单边力度不足,虽有破高,但仍未收稳在1865上方,随着日线和4小时收低,短线亚欧盘相对偏回落一些,但是空间大小。还需要结合盘中力度和形态转换,区间来回拉锯。暂时还是超短线应对。1小时图均线指标凌乱发散,短线震荡依旧,暂时看不出单边延续。回落收低后先看二次延续,小周期二浪释放空间和再走反弹。以此反复。综上总结:今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主,上方短期关注1863-1868Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1843-1838Frontline support.
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