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Friday(6month3day),美国劳工部公布的数据显示,非农就业人口增加39Ten thousand people, higher than expected32.8万人,这使得黄金市场承压下跌。

  “5月份的就业报告显示,经济增长势头放缓。不过,市场预期的近期大幅下跌似乎并未成为现实,”道明证券大宗商品策略全球主管Bart Melek表示。“总的来说,这意味着市场很可能会提高利率预期。事实上,报告发布后,整个曲线的利率(名义和实际)都在上升。这使得黄金价格从报告发布前的1863 -66美元下降到撰写本文时的1860美元以下。”

  对黄金而言,乐观的就业数据意味着美联储可以继续积极推进6Month and7Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的计划,这令黄金承压。

  “市场认为美联储不会采取如此激进的措施可能有些为时过早。我们还需要很长一段时间才能知道。到目前为止,经济数据还不错,”Melek表示,“我们判断,这份报告,以及任何显示经济稳健的未来数据,应该会将价格拉回200Daily moving average(1842dollar)。如果数据在很长一段时间内保持坚挺,工资水平继续保持强劲,那么金价可能会跌破1800USD.

Gold trend analysis:

  黄金上周行情整体上看,上周一至周四都是以震荡上涨进行,上周四最高冲击了1874一线,但是没有连续突破上方,依旧是在区间1873-1828内进行震荡,上周五的非农数据好于预期影响金价走跌,结果也是收盘在1850一线附近。四小时级别上看,均线交织,但MACDGolden fork,KDJReestablish a golden fork,1828一线上涨1874美元支撑金价看涨形态,下方黄金短期支撑在1843附近,若回落至该位置下方,则削弱短线看涨信号;进一步关注1828水平前期低点是否有效。综上所述黄金周线收录阴线十字星形态,非农利好打压金价,目前金价依旧处于高位震荡中,长期空头形态还没有形成,短期多头依据1828一线防守,所以周初操作上指南金师建议考虑高空低多策略,上方关注1870-1874USD resistance, follow below1840-1828美元支撑。意外下破1828,金价有望响应空头第五波,去考验前低1780Below.

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