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昨日的基本面市场主要集中在美盘的数据和讲话,美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数实际值为106.4比预期103.9要强,所以在一定程度上支撑的美元指数的价格,而随后欧佩克成员国考虑将俄罗斯豁免在石油生产协议之外,此举可能为沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋生产更多石油打开“大门”的消息一出让crude oil市场价格瞬间回落,而美国总统拜登在白宫会见了美联储主席鲍威尔,拜登表示,尊重美联储的独立性,美联储负有控制通胀的主要责任,应使用其政策工具应对物价高涨问题。这样的讲话内容让美指进一步得到支撑进而打压大宗商品价格,金银油价格全线回落,今日的基本面主要关注22:00The United States of America5月达拉斯联储商业活动指数和美国5monthISMmanufacturingPMIAnd the United States4月营建支出月率。
Wednesday(6month1日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡于近两周低位附近;周二因美元指数企稳反弹等因素,金价大幅走弱,失守了200The daily moving average once hit a new low in nearly two weeks1828.00dollar/盎司;现货黄金5Falling at the end of the month3.14%, set a record for last year9月以来的最大跌幅,也是连续两个月月线收跌。美国黄金futuresClosing down0.5%Reported per ounce1848.4美元。美元指数持稳,10年期美国国债债收益率跳升,削弱了黄金的吸引力。美联储理事沃勒周一呼吁美联储在今后的每次会议上都升息,直至通胀得到抑制,打消了6Month and7月后将暂停升息的预期。市场预期拜登可能会敦促美联储采取更多措施来对抗通胀压力,结果我们看到美元相当稳定,黄金市场有轻微压力。
黄金走势分析:
本周周五美国就将公布最新的5月份非农就业报告。目前市场预计,美国5月非农从4Of42.8Ten thousand people fell back to32.9万人,为一年多来最小增幅,失业率将从3.6%下滑至疫情前的低点3.5%。也就是说,美国就业市场总体仍算强劲,这并不足以使得美联储马上取消加息50个基点的行动。黄金空头如期回撤,很明显,日内多头很有可能会形成崩溃模式,或许刚好被洗出局,这也是市场希望看到的,而目前黄金暂时止步于40一线,那么短线内我们还是需要看空等待。
黄金价格昨日美盘在消息面和数据的影响下,大幅回落,最低触及1832附近,日线收出实体大阴线,并且跌破日线关键支撑。行情既然反转,跌破关键支撑形成了压制位,近期金价关键支撑在1840一线,前期曾多次在该点位出现快速的触底反弹,目前日线直接收线击穿,多空转换之后1840-43一线成短期阻力位。该点位是日内首次考虑接空点位,今日反弹再次上1850的概率极低,日内依托1850为防守去做空即可。 因为本周四和周五还有ADP和非农数据,白盘如果波动有限,那么下方首次可接多点位在1820-22一线,如果波动一旦加快或者反弹不到位直接走低,那么首次多单只能在1812-15一线去参与。综合来看,今日黄金操作思路指南金师建议以反弹做空为主,回踩做多为辅,上方短期关注1855-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1833-1828Frontline support.
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