Guide Metallographer:6.1今日黄金走势分析，金价上涨反弹力度加强

　　goldMessage surface:

The latest poll shows that due to the inflation rate in the United States being set by the Federal Reserve2%目标的三倍多，已经导致美国人的生活成本大幅上涨。美联储理事沃勒周一(5month30day)表示，从现在起，美联储应准备在每次会议上将利率提高0.5个百分点，直到通胀得到决定性遏制。这突显了美联储为努力控制物价上行压力而面临的紧张形势。沃勒这番讲话呼应了美联储鹰派代表、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德此前的表态，即希望美联储在年底前将利率提高至3.5%，也就是说美联储在剩余的所有会议上每次均加息0.5个百分点。沃勒在德国法兰克福货币与金融稳定研究所发表演讲后表示：“我在每次会议上都主张加息50个基点，直到证实通胀大幅下降。在我们做到这一点之前，我认为没有停止的意义。”　沃勒表示，他希望看到美联储在年底前将政策利率提高到中性水平以上。若有任何迹象显示通胀仍将居高不下，或者表明美国民众薪资持续上升，经济表现坚挺，美联储可能会在7月后维持激进加息策略。但美联储激进加息已导致股市遭遇沉重卖压，俄乌战争进一步扰乱了因新冠大流行而严重失序的供应链，加剧了外界对经济衰退的担忧。供应链能否尽快恢复正常，决定权不在美联储手里。市场焦点已转向美联储7月后政策前景。一些美联储政策制定者表示，他们希望在决定是否需要调整9月份加息幅度之前，先看看夏季通胀水平会下降多少，以便有时间评估美联储的举措对经济和通胀的影响。　而且已经有迹象表明，美国通胀已经见顶。为此，美联储面临重压，即如何果断降低通胀率的同时又不至于造成经济衰退。但无论如何，短期内由于6Month7月的加息预期是笃定的，因此对于黄金的压制作用也就会逐渐涌出，除非地缘政治方面有更大的冲突事件出现，黄金方有可能缩减其下行幅度。

Wednesday（6month1日）亚市盘初，现货黄金窄幅震荡于近两周低位附近；周二因美元指数企稳反弹等因素，金价大幅走弱，失守了200The daily moving average once hit a new low in nearly two weeks1834.96dollar/盎司；现货黄金5Falling at the end of the month3.14%, set a record for last year9月以来的最大跌幅，也是连续两个月月线收跌。美国黄金futuresClosing down0.5%Reported per ounce1848.4美元。美元指数持稳，10年期美国国债债收益率跳升，削弱了黄金的吸引力。美联储理事沃勒周一呼吁美联储在今后的每次会议上都升息，直至通胀得到抑制，打消了6Month and7月后将暂停升息的预期。市场预期拜登可能会敦促美联储采取更多措施来对抗通胀压力，结果我们看到美元相当稳定，黄金市场有轻微压力。

Gold trend analysis:

　　黄金价格昨日美盘在消息面和数据的影响下，大幅回落，最低触及1832附近，日线收出实体大阴线，并且跌破日线关键支撑。行情既然反转，跌破关键支撑形成了压制位，近期金价关键支撑在1840一线，前期曾多次在该点位出现快速的触底反弹，目前日线直接收线击穿，多空转换之后1840-43一线成短期阻力位。该点位是日内首次考虑接空点位，今日反弹再次上1850的概率极低，日内依托1850为防守去做空即可。 因为本周四和周五还有ADP和非农数据，白盘如果波动有限，那么下方首次可接多点位在1820-22一线，如果波动一旦加快或者反弹不到位直接走低，那么首次多单只能在1812-15一线去参与。综合来看，今日黄金操作思路指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

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