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俄罗斯央行表示,由于西方国家最近实施金融制裁,各国央行,尤其是亚洲和中东国家的央行,将重新考虑针对美元和欧元的foreign exchange储备策略。
In the2month24日入侵乌克兰之后,俄罗斯受到一系列金融限制,包括限制俄罗斯央行的储备,导致俄罗斯6420亿美元储备的大约一半被冻结。
俄罗斯预计,其他国家的央行,尤其是亚洲和中东国家的央行,将购买更多黄金,并在货币篮子中加入人民币来取代美元和欧元等货币的地位。
俄罗斯央行在一份有关金融稳定的报告中称:“人们可以预期,对黄金的需求将增加,美元和欧元作为储备资产的地位将下降。根据世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)Data,2022年第一季度全球黄金需求同比增长34%。在这些出现这些变化的背景下,全球市场可能加剧波动,这将推动各国央行进一步加息。”
俄罗斯央行表示,转向黄金等资产的举动都是因为西方对俄罗斯的制裁,以及西方可能扣押他们冻结的部分俄罗斯央行外汇储备。
俄罗斯央行指出,西方国家对俄罗斯外汇市场施加制裁限制的后果之一是,对美元和欧元以外货币的需求增加。该央行指的是人民币。
俄罗斯央行补充称,甚至可能考虑对银行的美元和欧元存款实行负利率。
This year4月,俄罗斯央行宣布今年年初进一步减持美元,并补充说,尽管受到西方制裁的影响,俄罗斯仍有足够的人民币和黄金。
数据显示,截至今年1月,俄罗斯央行将美元在储备中的份额削减至10.9%,这比一年前报告的21.2%显著下降。与此同时,人民币的份额从12.8%Ascend to17.1%,欧元则从29.2%Ascend to33.9%。
根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的最新数据,截至2022year1月底,俄罗斯持有近2300吨黄金,是全球第五大主权黄金拥有国。
Gold trend analysis:
黄金从技术面来看,黄金昨日震荡承压下行收低,经过反复的探高不破,区间上轨处承压,欧美盘时段试探支撑后尾盘放量跌破,击穿了上周的低点1840And closed below, the daily line closed with a mid shadeKLine. The daily line broke through and closed at a low level, with further pullback expected the next day. Based on the weekly pattern, after two consecutive positive rebounds, the weakness is only three, and this week's closing is more critical. It is expected to decline again and turn negative in the third week. Yesterday's first downward trend and short-term weakness. There are signs of a weekly decline. 4Hour chart rebounds on1870as well as1864Formed a double high point that was blocked and transitioned back, breaking the support defense of the neck line yesterday1840.Closing at a low level, the next day saw a continuous decline, and the moving average index began to turn downward amidst chaos. At the same time, it also pushed open the lower track of the Bollinger Road.4Hours are bearish.1Yesterday, the hour chart repeatedly explored high and fell, forming a small level of step oscillation and decline. As the rebound strength weakened, the high point continued to move downwards, combined with the single positive rebound and then continuous negative decline, breaking the low point1840-1842转换成阻力,弱势行情,今日亚盘就会惯性摔低延续,亚盘要积极先行看空,以免踏空弱势。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1823Frontline support.
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