Guide Metallographer:6.1今日黄金走势分析，小心金价进一步重挫

　　goldMessage surface:

　　根据纽约联储上周所发布的一份缩表指引，到2024年底之前，美联储的缩表规模平均将为每月800亿美元。到2025年年中，美联储持有的证券组合规模可能会降至5.9万亿美元。这将预示着未来三年里，美联储持有的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)总额或将大幅减少约2.5万亿美元。纽约联储预计，通过持续三年时间的缩表，到2025年年中，美联储的资产负债表持仓可能降至相当于美国GDPabout22%的水平附近，此后，资产负债表规模则会再度开始增加。对于投资者而言，美联储加息对市场的影响或许很容易量化，然而缩表所带来的具体影响，或许连美联储自身都很难有一个清晰的认识。在美联储历史上，这一全球金融市场上的“执牛耳者”还从没有过在如此激进加息的同时大幅度缩减资产负债表的先例，这一切的未知可能加剧市场的动荡。

　　另外，美国总统拜登当地时间周二与美联储主席鲍威尔及财政部长耶伦进行了会面，着重讨论了通货膨胀问题。拜登在会谈前后的讲话中表示，解决通胀是他的首要任务。他还指出美联储有双重职责，包括充分就业和稳定物价，他期待鲍威尔继续发挥领导作用，解决通胀问题。而有意思的是，尽管在上周的美联储纪要发布后，市场对于美联储9月暂停加息的预期一度高涨，但在本周全球通胀预期重燃和美联储鹰派官员讲话的影响下，美联储9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的概率预期，似乎又再度呈现了死灰复燃的态势。

　　今日需要关注的数据有，德国4月实际零售销售月率、欧元区5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value, UK5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI终值、欧元区4Monthly unemployment rate, United States5monthADP就业人数、美国5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value and the United States5monthISMmanufacturingPMI。此外，加拿大央行晚间将公布利率决议需要重点关注。

Gold trend analysis:

Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell under pressure, ending lower. After repeatedly exploring high but not breaking, it was under pressure at the upper track of the range. After testing support during the European and American trading period, it fell sharply in late trading, breaking through last week's low point1840And closed below, the daily line closed with a mid shadeKLine. The daily line broke through and closed at a low level, with further pullback expected the next day. Based on the weekly pattern, after two consecutive positive rebounds, the weakness is only three, and this week's closing is more critical. It is expected to decline again and turn negative in the third week. Yesterday's first downward trend and short-term weakness. There are signs of a weekly decline. In terms of news: Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and concerns about soaring inflation, the rise in US bond yields has weakened the attractiveness of gold.

　　4Hour chart rebounds on1870as well as1864Formed a double high point that was blocked and transitioned back, breaking the support defense of the neck line yesterday1840.Closing at a low level, the next day saw a continuous decline, and the moving average index began to turn downward amidst chaos. At the same time, it also pushed open the lower track of the Bollinger Road.4Hours are bearish.1Yesterday, the hour chart repeatedly explored high and fell, forming a small level of step oscillation and decline. As the rebound strength weakened, the high point continued to move downwards, combined with the single positive rebound and then continuous negative decline, breaking the low point1840-1842转换成阻力，弱势行情，今日亚欧可能就会惯性摔低延续，亚盘要积极先行看空，以免踏空弱势。阻力点在1840-1842The space is the first empty point, and the second resistance is1848-1850。下方看回1820-1810A little deeper in the area1800There is also an opportunity below to see if it is a very weak downward trend or a slow downward trend with fluctuations. So as to determine the intraday space.

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