Guide Metallographer:6.1今日黄金走势分析，黄金破位三角区间看弱

　　goldMessage surface:

　　报道显示，美联储6month1日开始以每月475USD100mn(among300亿美元国债，175USD100mnMBS)的步伐缩表，将在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950USD100mn(among600亿美元国债，350USD100mnMBS)。

　　拜登表示，尊重美联储的独立性，美联储负有控制通胀的主要责任，应使用其政策工具应对物价高涨问题。

　　美国财长耶伦表示，预计就业增长不会以同样的速度向前发展。我对通货膨胀的预期是错误的。不能排除进一步的通胀冲击。经济处于充分就业状态。

　　美联储博斯蒂克表示，今年通货膨胀可能会大幅下降。9月暂停(raise interest rates)的想法与任何迫在眉睫的“救市”无关。

　　穆迪分析，欧元区商品和服务通胀继续超过欧洲央行的目标。欧元区5monthCPIAnnual rate initial value recorded8.1%，再创历史新高。能源价格再度攀升推动通胀上涨，同时食品价格也在强劲上涨。考虑到潜在趋势，欧元区通胀将在今年夏末见顶。总体而言，欧元区5monthCPI数据增加了欧洲央行将在7月份加息的预期的确定性，若符合预期，这将是该行10多年来的首次加息。

Gold trend analysis:

　　周一，周二走三角震荡，区间在1864/1840，周二午夜震荡下跌破位1840，偷跌至1834附近，破位了三角震荡区间，改变了目前的形态，那么，弱势下跌就即将开启。日线周五，周一在布林中轨之上受十字星小阳线，周二收大阴，同时破位日线布林中轨，黄金自此进入弱势下跌状态，周期性可持续至1808，不过本周是非农数据周，周四有小非农ADP数据，失业金数据，周五有非农数据，技术面预测看跌，也可能随着数据影响而改变暂时的形态，因此，本周从周三开始看空，周四，周五关注数据变化。

　　H4周期在慢跌中拉开区间，布林从午夜开始开口，下跌刚刚开始，而且空间很大，上方压制在单边均线，1842，1848，周期的下跌力度会在震荡反弹结束后再延续，所以，日内交易以反弹做空为主。小周期目前黄金处于极弱状态，午夜反弹至1846无力有形成二次下跌，那么，空头防守点在1846，日内不破1846，可看极弱空，下方或见1830，破位可见1820，如果经过亚欧盘震荡站稳1846上，黄金再次进入休整期，数据之前就难有作为。值得注意的是，早盘极弱不追空，下方1830有强支撑，短期内有反弹空间可看。

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