Guide Metallographer:5.31黄金非农即将来袭，温馨提示，多空谨慎出行

　　goldMessage surface:

Tuesday（5month31日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡微跌，一度创三日新低至1845.85dollar/盎司，这主要是受到美元和美债反弹的打压。美联储理事沃勒支持未来每次会议都加息50个基点，帮助美债收益率上涨，市场对亚洲疫情担忧程度降低，亚欧股市上涨，都对金价产生压力。但俄乌地缘局势依然紧张，德国和西班牙通胀高企，这仍吸引投资者逢低买入黄金，给金价提供支撑。本周市场重点关注美国非农就业报告。随着美元走软提振以美元计价的黄金价格，周一金价在震荡交易中走强，不过部分投资者转向亚洲风险较高的资产，令涨幅受限。尽管我们认为，美联储重新赢得抗通胀信誉的决心有可能使美国经济明年陷入衰退，但我们预计美元将找到支撑。任何危机感都有可能提振对美元的需求，即使引发市场情绪恶化的因素是美国基本面恶化，这反映出市场情绪的脆弱本质。我们预计未来几个月foreign exchange市场将出现高度的波动性，我们预计美元遭遇抛售将是短暂的。美元反弹将限制黄金上行。

　　那么后续将继续关注美国非农就业数据，与未能创造足够就业机会的其他国家不同，美国经济中的劳动力市场一直保持强劲。 美国劳工统计局将在本周晚些时候报告非农就业人数(NFP)，预计美国政府将报告本月新增31万个就业机会，而之前的数据为42.8万个。而失业率预计将稳定在3.6%。高于预期的美国NFP数据可能会推动美元指数上涨，因为这将导致美联储采取极端鹰派立场。本周月线交接，5月仅剩余今日一个交易日，月线大概率两连阴，而本周五有重要的美国非农数据。尽管美联储暗示不会采取更激进措施，但在6Month and7月再次升息50个基点以对抗通胀的决心不容怀疑。加之市场认为美联储最鹰时刻或已过去，美国三大stock market index大幅反弹，风险情绪升温，黄金反弹受阻，在1840to1870dollar/盎司震荡等待突破。

Gold trend analysis:

　　黄金技术面分析：昨日金价整体还是维持冲高回落压制震荡格局，亚欧盘小幅回踩下探并企稳1848一线快速回升，午后一度强势拉升重回1860上方延续反弹，临近欧美盘价格冲高承压1863关口再度出现快速回落晚间二次反抽最终承压1860关口进一步震荡收阴，日k线报收压制震荡中阴，整体价格连续冲高受阻1863关口出现回落震荡，短期技术面还有进一步回落下行预期，今日下方有望再度测试前期4Hour Double Bottom1840关口支撑企稳力度，上方短线压力1855-1857区域，强阻在昨日美盘二次反抽高点1860一线，今日收盘未站上1860关口之前任何反抽均可顺势做空继续下看回落，多单只有在测试1840关口支撑有效后可以参与，月线收官谨慎逆势操作，日线级别未强势突破并站稳1860关口之前依旧压制偏空运行。

　　黄金从当下来看，四小时的震荡行情没变，上方阻力震荡向下，下方支撑震荡向上，目前价格运行于一线下方，能量空头主导，但是价格又靠近了小时图的下线，所以对于这种格局，反弹入场即可，日内短线关注1840Low point, long-term attack not too high, rebound not sustained, reverse downward break1840则会走弱，此位是短期临界点，下破看空，不破继续震荡。亚盘低开低走有走弱迹象，但形态上还是最好等破位之后。以免拉锯震荡。综合来看，今日黄金操作思路指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1860-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.

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