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Monday(5month30day),金价已从日内高点回落,但仍维持在1850美元以上的支撑位。大宗商品分析师指出,由于美国市场因阵亡将士纪念日长周末休市,市场对任何方向都缺乏信心。美市早盘,现货黄金一度突破1860美元关口,但随后很快自高位回落,现交投于1856美元左右。现货黄金价格维持弱势涨幅,尽管美元受到美联储可能放慢货币政策从紧步伐预期的打压,美指续创4月下旬以来新低至101.38,但美国因阵亡将士纪念日休市,日内交易清淡。投资者目光转向本周末即将公布的美国非农数据。
本周,市场将迎来欧元区5monthCPIEurope and America5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI终值,APIandEIAcrude oil库存变动,美国5monthADP就业人数和5月非农。事件方面需关注加拿大央行利率决议,OPEC+会议以及多位美联储官员的讲话。其中美国非农就业报告备受关注,预计将引发市场行情。此外,当周迎来阵亡将士纪念日和端午节,投资者需关注美国和中国等国的假期公告。
就本周五的非农就业数据本身,市场也已经预留了增速放缓的预期。目前的市场预期32.5万较前一个月的42.8万明显下降。尽管本周将公布多项重要数据,但指南金师认为,这些数据对利率预期影响不大。无论数据如何,美联储似乎都将在接下来的两次货币政策会议上加息50个基点。本周投资者将继续关注美国非农就业数据,与未能创造足够就业机会的其他国家不同,美国经济中的劳动力市场一直保持强劲。未来一周将有大量数据出炉,因此汇市可能活跃起来。
Gold trend analysis:
From a technical perspective, gold,4小时级别震荡;布林线轨道水平运行,留意布林线轨道1842.69-1867.80Regional breakthroughs, currentlyMACDGolden fork,KDJ向上发散,如果能够顶破布林线上轨1867.80附近阻力,则有望打开新的上涨通道,上方进一步阻力参考1880关口附近。如果不能顶破布林线上轨1867.80附近阻力,则需要提防震荡回落风险,目前布林线中轨支撑在1855.30附近,需要跌破布林线下轨1842.69附近支撑,才能打开下跌通道。进一步支撑在1832.24Nearby, then1824.62附近支撑。小时图上看,金价自1841USD starts to risevWave, upward resistance looking towards100%Target bit1870USD and138.2%Target bit1881USD.vWaves are from1786The upward trend of the US dollar opening(i)浪的子浪。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回调低多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方重点关注1865-1870Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1848-1843Frontline support.
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