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5month30日周一亚市盘中,国际黄金走势震荡上涨,金价早间开盘价格1852USD, lowest drop to1847The US dollar has risen to a maximum of1863USD, currently trading in1861Around the US dollar.
上周黄金价格冲高回落,涨幅收窄,黄力晨认为,金价上涨遇阻,主要是因为美联储会议纪要鹰派,在接下来的6Month and7月会议上,美联储大概率将会分别加息50个基点,这使得美元一度向上反弹,整体下跌势头放缓,同时美国股市持续反弹,对亚洲疫情的担忧缓解,削弱黄金的避险需求,通胀见顶预期升温,降低购买黄金抵抗通胀的需求,不过美元在短暂反弹之后继续走弱,日内再次刷新最近一个月新低,以及俄乌地缘局势依旧紧张,这为金价提供支撑。
展望后市,受当前市场多空消息共同作用的影响,黄金价格展开震荡整理,调整走势短期内可能将继续保持下去。不过俄乌地缘紧张局势短期内很难出现改善;通胀虽然升幅放缓,但可以预见的是,在未来较长一段时间里可能继续保持高位;美股近期虽然持续反弹,但美国企业一季度获利全线下滑,经济前景并不明朗,对经济放缓的担忧可能再次升温;美联储虽然在6Month and7月仍将大概率分别加息50个基点,但市场对美联储进一步激进加息的预期降温,在7月加息之后,美联储有可能放缓甚至暂停加息,这可能拖累美元继续走弱。综上,黄金价格阶段调整结束之后,有望重回升势,任何形式的下跌,都可以看作是低位买进黄金的机会。
Gold trend analysis:
Monday(5month30日)亚市盘初,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1860Near the US dollar, on the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the continued weakness of the US dollar provide support for gold prices, but on the other hand, the US4月消费者支出增幅超预期,强化美联储加息预期,通胀见顶预期升温,打压购买黄金抵御通胀的需求,美国股市持续反弹,市场对亚洲疫情的担忧情绪降温,打压避险需求,短线金价面临的下行风险有所增加。尽管调查显示,多数华尔街分析师和散户倾向于看涨后市,尤其是油价上涨可能拉高通胀预期,短线金价仍有震荡走高的机会,但本周还将迎来美国ISMManufacturing and non manufacturing industriesPMIData and market expectations are relatively optimistic, which may suppress gold prices; In addition, this week's US non farm employment report may also be unfavorable for gold prices, given the relatively strong US job market.
黄金近期波动不是很大,上周五黄金维持小区间整理,今日早盘跳空低开测试1847后向上破位,最高上涨到1864附近,短期走势依然属于强势,日线级别,布林带收口走平,价格站稳中轨,依托中轨形成震荡格局,下方支撑较为强劲,短线来看,后市继续走高的概率较大。4小时,布林带收口,价格横盘整理,下方1840一线支撑较强,价格多次触底均企稳反弹,日内短线操作思路上指南金师暂时继续看多,上方一旦破位,反弹的空间就更大,本周的关键阻力,在1865-70.日内操作思路回撤布局多。下方支撑1855and1850。
Golden Strategy: Suggestions1852There are many nearby areas, causing damage1848, Objective1860-66
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