Guide Metallographer:5.30Golden Non Agricultural Week is coming, fasten your seat belt this week

　　goldFundamentals:

Monday(5month30day)At the beginning of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading in1855Near the US dollar, on the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the continued weakness of the US dollar provide support for gold prices, but on the other hand, the US4The monthly increase in consumer spending exceeded expectations, strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and expectations of inflation peaking increased, suppressing the demand to buy gold to resist inflation. The US stock market continued to rebound, and market concerns about the Asian epidemic cooled, suppressing safe haven demand. The downside risk faced by short-term gold prices has increased.

Although surveys show that most Wall Street analysts and retail investors tend to be bullish about the future, especially as rising oil prices may drive up inflation expectations and there is still a chance for short-term gold prices to fluctuate and rise, this week will also usher in the United StatesISMManufacturing and non manufacturing industriesPMIData and market expectations are relatively optimistic, which may suppress gold prices; In addition, this week's US non farm employment report may also be unfavorable for gold prices, given the relatively strong US job market.

Monday coincides with Memorial Day in the United States, and the US financial markets are closed, which may limit trading space.

Gold trend analysis:

Gold's trend was relatively stable last Friday, although bulls intentionally touched60Putting pressure on bears from above is likely to hit some bears in the market, and the overall strength is also quite obvious, ultimately leading to a pullback60Running below, subject to50On the one hand, there is support, and currently it continues to operate between the short and medium term moving averages, forming a certain range of fluctuations. In the short term, there is a possibility of turning around within four hours, so there is a high possibility of forming a double top or head and shoulder top pattern above. Once this form is formed, combined with the medium term decline pattern, gold is likely to continue to fall significantly in the later stage, and the short target in the medium term is also what we mentioned earlier1770Nearby, this position is likely to be the bottom position of this year, while the pressure above continues to maintain60On the front line, although there has been some penetration in the past few days, there is no desire to continue attacking, and the points that need to be paid attention to next week are50-40Two supports, if we continue to break, bears can still follow up.

　　4Looking online, last week's price was1869After falling back, the upward momentum is consumed too much, and the market tends to fluctuate and move downwards4The hourly level can only be seen as a volatile and bearish trend, but fortunately, it closed on Friday1850upper. At present, the short-term market may be1860There is a certain amount of pressure nearby, and the hourly chart also shows a certain degree of overbought. However, the center of gravity of the short-term structure has been lifted, so even if there is a pressure recovery, there is not much room. After the support level stabilizes, there is still a great possibility of a rebound and upward trend. If we look at the continuation of a long reversal, then we basically cannot expect too much pullback, and the point position should be maintained at1840-1847Above, we need to continue to look at the highs and lows, and continue to look up until the weekly closing line. If there are repeated fluctuations and breaks1847So it's another fluctuating market. Even if it's fluctuating repeatedly, there may still be a second round of bottoming out, but I think it won't affect the challenge1870-1880Horizontal. The short-term pattern is still bullish, so we will continue to maintain a pullback and bullish approach in operation. We will continue to pay attention today1840—1869Overall, there are opportunities for both long and short positions of gold to operate in the volatile range, but the focus is on controlling the entry level. For daily gold operations, the guidance for gold traders is more optimistic about falling and long positions.

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