Guide Metallographer:5.27今日黄金走势分析，黄金市场最新消息面

　　goldMessage surface:

Friday(5month27day)，国际金价上涨，因美元指数持续走弱，创4month25Recently, it has reached a new low101.429，市场对美联储采取更激进货币紧缩政策的预期下降。有迹象表明美联储可能在下半年放缓甚至暂停紧缩周期，金价料升向1870USD.

Beijing Time15:20Spot gold rose0.41%to1857.99dollar/Ounces;COMEX期金主力合约上涨0.44%to1855.7dollar/盎司；美元指数下跌0.16%to101.063。

　　美联储本周公布的5政策会议纪要强调，大多数参会者支持在6Month and7月会议上继续各加息50个基点，但决策层对7月份之后的各种政策选项持开放态度。美联储须努力解决如何在不导致经济衰退或大幅推高失业率的情况下降低通胀，这已被证明是一项艰巨的任务。

　　美国银行策略师周四(5month26day)表示，如果经济恶化或通胀消退，美联储可能会在9月暂停其货币紧缩政策，联邦基金利率将维持在1.75%to2%的范围内。“我们最近看到美联储的沟通方式发生了微妙但显着的变化，鉴于宏观背景具有挑战性、金融状况收紧以及通胀可能走软，一些美联储官员建议在今年晚些时候利率达到2%后减缓或暂停加息。”

　　DailyFXofforeign exchangeStrategistIlya Spivak表示，市场对美联储未来货币政策鹰派预期有所缓和，最重要的是美元疲软，金价因此受到支撑，下方支撑位在1830美元，上方阻力位则在1885About USD.

　　道明证券的策略师表示，他们预计美联储将加息至高于中性利率的水平，但在6Month and7月的政策会议之后会以更加渐进的速度加息。美联储决策者估计中性利率大约在2%reach3%之间，既不会刺激也不会限制经济增长。

　　Brown Brothers Harriman在一份报告中表示：“会议纪要中表达的观点是……没有人真正知道利率必须走多远。美联储正面临一个非常复杂的局面，因此正试图提高其鹰派信誉，同时尽量不预先承诺任何利率路径。”

　　SPI资产管理公司合伙人Stephen Innes表示：“我们需要更明确的信号，即经济数据确实开始恶化，美联储才能考虑暂停收水……因此，黄金投资者仍不愿大幅推高价格……黄金真正上涨之前也将有一段时间区间震荡。”

Gold trend analysis:

　　技术面来看，昨日行情虽凌晨二次反抽，但日线并没有实现复阳，而是十字收线，那么也就震荡大概率，实际行情体现也是如此，所以日内短线以延续震荡对待。短线一小时和四小时最为明显的参考位，也就是在凌晨二次反抽后1840一线支撑的有效性，所以日内操作下方位置也就是以1840作为严格有效参考，上方位置有待欧盘行情再来确认，预期位置可以参考1860一线即可。具体而言，日内操作思路指南金师建议低多高空即可，上方阻力1860-1865, lower support1840-1835.

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