Chen Yibo:5.24Analysis of the afternoon market trend of gold and crude oil and interpretation of operational strategies

goldMarket trend analysis;

Monday(5month23day)Spot gold hit a new high in the past two weeks1865.33dollar/Ounces, as the US dollar index plummeted nearly1%To a new low in one month102.076Investors have expressed concerns about whether the Federal Reserve can guide the US economy towards a so-called soft landing, and the profit margins of some large companies have been impacted, which is seen as a potential warning for future concerns. The US dollar index has surged since the beginning of this year, and this month it has hit nearly20Annual high105The threshold, but the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike has been largely digested, and the downward correction trend of the US dollar in the short term may further expand, making further upward movements more difficult. U.S.A4Monthly inflation rate has increased by more than8%, distance3Exceeding the monthly record40Annual high8.5%Not far. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will6Month and7Continuation at the monthly policy meeting5Monthly policy meeting rhythm - continue to raise interest rates50A basis point, but the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter1.4%This has raised concerns among investors about whether the Federal Reserve can guide the US economy towards a so-called soft landing. Analysts say they expect the federal funds rate to rise at some point next year3.75%Nevertheless, many consumers may still be more concerned about high housing costs and gasoline prices. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation, it usually takes one year to18It will take months to see the return, which will bring more pain to consumers, and both housing and car loans will rise. Inflation has risen to the point where it is squeezing household budgets and erasing income growth. Unfortunately, I believe that at least in the coming months, we will have to continue to face high inflation while accepting higher interest rates. Chen Yibo believes that; The deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and rising inflation should still support gold, and the rising risk of poor stock market performance enhances its attractiveness for diversifying risks.

Technical analysis of gold; Gold fell last week, rebounded and closed positive, but fell at the beginning of the week1786After stabilizing on the first line, it quickly rebounded, and after falling on the second wave of the daily line, it was accompanied by a rebound correction. The weekly harvest yields a central yangKLine. Fifty words on the daily lineKLine sorting, combined with the rebound of the previous day's positive line. The daily line is still in the process of rebound correction, crossKLine start stability10Above the daily line, there is still room for further upward rebound in the short term, while the daily line shows a continuous positive rebound performance. Breaking the previous extremely weak decline, we still need to pay attention to the direction selection after the rebound this week. Whether to continue the decline after the rebound correction or form a reversal remains to be determined.4The hour chart undergoes a small level of two wave rebound, with1786Make a wave of rebound to1836Afterwards, step back1807.Pushing the second wave up again, of course, is a small-scale rebound wave shape, and the current space is not yet certain whether it is a reversal of the rise. Currently, the second wave rebound is continuing. The short-term moving average turns upwards to form temporary support.1Hour chart surrounding270The unit moving average is repeated. Currently, it is in the process of breaking through the big moving average. After standing firm, the hour chart will bounce upwards in a scattered wave with multiple hairs. At present, it is in the driving indicator stage, and combined with the small cycle rebound step wave shape, it stepped back on last Friday1832Slightly stabilizing before reaching higher, relying on short-term support today1832Be a defensive point, step back and look bullish first, and then choose resistance backhand empty after the European and American market is measured. During the rebound process, resistance will also cause pressure to fall back, and the size of the rebound space is determined by the shape. In summary, Chen Yibo suggests that gold's operation strategy for today should focus on a pullback to lower levels, supplemented by a rebound to higher levels, with a focus on the above1870-1875Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.