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指南金师goldMarket analysis:
Wednesday(5month18day),现货黄金续走低,因美元指数在连跌三个交易日后止跌反弹,美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储努力对抗通胀飙升之际展现出更为强硬的姿态,强调通胀不下降,美联储面对加息不会退缩。另有官员对经济前景大唱赞歌,称美国经济至少在未来18个月内可能会继续以高于趋势的速度增长。
尽管美元周三上涨令金价承压,但美股大跌,标普500指数和道指创近两年最大跌幅,也给金价提供避险支撑;美crude oil在周三下跌近4%后,周四一度下跌近2%,创本周新低至107.59dollar/桶,明显受到美股大跌的拖累,而且精炼油库存意外增加、美国原油产量增加、亚洲疫情担忧情绪回升,都令油价承压;从技术面来看,短线油价见顶风险显著增加。
黄金现在进入了分歧,多空胶着,没有明显的方向。但是因为是大幅度下跌后的调整。我们更看好反弹。昨日也是提示了做多看涨,虽然波动不大,但也有获利的机会。今日的思路还是看涨不变,预计还有继续上涨1835一线的可能。短线价格交投1815附近,日内多空分水岭可注意1810,如果今日失守金价就存在较大的机会去下侧1890-1886的区域。当日做空的点位可去关注周三欧盘开跌的口子1820区域,这里昨天也是重点强调,1820不收稳多头就有机会回落,不可追涨。日内以此关键点做多空争夺!此轮高位大跌基本已经走完,筑底会来回反复保持耐心,技术上看外盘黄金仍在200日均线以下运行,建议向上突破后多单再做跟进.
Operation suggestions:1820-1818Near empty, stop loss1824.9,1812-10Many. Stop loss1806.。
Analysis of crude oil trend:
美油昨日先居高震荡,再测115上方,然技术上的承压以及技术上多头跟进动能不足,导致行情承压回修。晚间EIA原油库存数据虽利多美油,但奈何技术上的调整需求需要释放,加之美股下跌拖累,导致后半夜美油走技术路线持续下跌,跌至10日线附近,日线收得一大阴线。然今日早间开盘美油即跳空下跌破位10日线,跌至均线带附近,目前虽有回弹,但上方10日线已然成为短线的阻碍。
从美油日线结构上来看,此前连续4个交易日的持续收阳上涨在技术上属实难以理解,而目前行情突然大幅回落更加确认当前行情的异动多变状态,从近期K线结构来看,多空转换也非常的频繁,而导致这种现象出现的主因还是消息面引发市场情绪不稳定引起的,所以目前对于美油技术走势预期并不能过于期待,因为情绪化的波动随时可能打乱技术预期节奏,所以短线保守者暂时对于原油还是持观望态度为宜,不做过多参与,有待消息面稳定,走势符合技术需要再做参与打算。
日内激进则借助昨日下调,尝试择高短空操作,日内上方先关注跳空缺口108.0-5回补,激进可在此先轻仓搏短空,保守者则有待回弹109.5, and even110.5附近再做短空考虑,下方主要目标看均线带105.8-0一带。鉴于当前美油波动较为情绪化,且波动幅度较大,故保守者依然选择观望不参与
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