Guo Shengshan:5.17早间黄金精准走势分析，原油独家布局策略

Gains and losses in investment are like riding a roller coaster, with peaks and valleys, which means that whether it's good or bad right now, it's only temporary. Don't take some gains and losses so seriously! Especially in a rapidly rising and plummeting market, when the trend is right, the position will be flipped; The trend reversed and blindly increased margin, ultimately leading to a sell-out; Who hasn't experienced investing before? Don't fantasize that every transaction is always round and full, with a balance between profits and losses and a sense of gain and loss. Investing in the market is like traveling, always in a hurry, with so much confusion and confusion. Only by calming down can one dispel the clouds and mist that envelop one's eyes; Tasting a cup of tea quietly, I realized that there were many opportunities right in front of me.

　　goldTechnical analysis:

　　黄金周一日内先有反弹，但上方仅仅测压至1818附近便表现承压，行情在此出现承压再回落也是在预期范围内的，但是欧盘时段出现一波急促下跌，跌破1800整数关口，下方短时跌至1786一线，随后行情又震荡反弹1800上方震荡运行。

　　周一日内黄金走势，在美元没有太大波动，消息面也相对平和的情况下，日内黄金出现如此诡异走势还是很反常的，这样的走势也充分说明当前行情的情绪化风险，虽然下方1786A trend line that belongs to a short-term low point connection, but this abnormal state is not strictly in accordance with technical requirements. The expected market on the hourly chart may come under pressure1818-20Conduct a pullback1810-07区域止跌，完成小周期的三波段下修，但目前黄金以已经跌破1800The low point dropped to1786附近，也符合三波下跌的技术趋势需要，所以黄金还是有条件有理由进行反弹的，只不过在周一欧盘时段一波下跌破位1800后，完成三波段下跌后，短线再度下跌的空间未必就会很大了，且行情随时可能出现技术性的超跌反弹，但是黄金短期内反弹的幅度和动能还是得要看美元脸色，如果美指不能跌破104.3支撑，则黄金预计也难有进一步回升空间。

　　短线黄金下方关注1795-93短支撑，主要支撑还是要看低点趋势线连线1785-80区域，上方则先关注1818-1820一带压力，如果能站稳其上，则上方还是可期1830-35区域测试，但能否强势回升还是得要看美指脸色。短线操作上郭晟衫建议主思路依旧保留择低布局多单思路，鉴于日内行情波动异常状态，务必做好仓位管理，尽可能的择低点参与，而至于空单，则不再考虑参与，因为目前美指回修迹象还是很重的，一旦美指回修，则黄金空单风险是远大于多单的，甚至可在美指有效跌破104.3后，黄金直接考虑短线多单追入参与。

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

　　原油消息面解读：周一5month16日亚洲时段，美油延续涨势，现报111.25dollar/桶，早间一度创3month28日以来最高至111.57dollar/桶；因美国汽油价格飙升至历史新高，根据OPEC5Monthly report,OPEC内部减产执行率持续分化，沙特、伊拉克、阿联酋和科威特4个大型产油国2022year4月平均减产执行率保值在100%左右，基本保持足额生产。其他小型产油国则受制于产能、人力、资金等因素，减产执行率持续走高，尼日利亚执行率已经突破500%。后期来看，沙特等部分大型产油国满足于高油价，不希望进一步增产，而中小产油国则受制于国内产能因素，无法达到产量配额。OPEC供应增量有限。从当前基本面来看，俄罗斯原油出口降量不及预期、战略储备持续释放及国内需求偏弱带来的弱现实局面难有实质性改善，月差反弹空间有限。郭晟衫从预期层面来看，欧盟禁运落地后难有进一步的利多呈现，虽俄罗斯产量继续下滑难以避免，但过渡期内欧佩克及美国产量仍有较大提升空间，远端缺口预期亦相对有限，绝对价格不宜过分看高，区间上沿附近仍以偏空看待。

　　原油技术面分析：原油上周五强势上涨收高，回测106.30一线启稳后一路强势上涨逼近前期高点，本周开盘跳空高开再创新低，周线收盘强势收复，将周初下跌失地尽数收回且创出新高点，从周线的收盘情况来看，本轮的回调每次都是点到中轨即止，中轨也成为了周线的多头防守关键点，失守中轨才能中期向下调整，反之守住还将继续维持在高位整理反复摸高。日线一波连阳式强势收复失地，重新从下轨回到了上轨，目前上轨轻微张口。使得空间有向上延续的可能，但也不排除回归区间拉锯。4小时宽基数拉锯震荡，下跌快收复也快。从目前的结构来看，短期站上均线上方且均线指标拐头向上形成支撑，同时也上破了此前的高点。短线有进一步延续之势，但上行空间也是边走边看。由于反复拉锯的空间结构频率较多，本周也不排除冲高回落再进行回撤，操作上需要结合形态灵活应对。综上所述，今日原油操作思路上郭晟衫建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，短期上方重点关注116.0-116.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below110.5-110.0Frontline support.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

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