Guide Metallographer:5.16黄金探底1786后反弹，1790reach1818High throw and low suction

　　goldMarket trend analysis:

Monday(5month16day)国际金价在震荡交投中小幅下跌，重新逼近上个交易日创下的2month4Daily low point1798.98dollar/盎司，美联储官员此前表示，如果高通胀没有表现出改善，准备在9月美联储会议前考虑加快升息。贵金属一场重大清仓事件可能正在上演。克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特上周五(5month3day)表示，通胀需要在“几个月”内走低，美联储官员才能安全地得出结论，认为通胀已经见顶。如果数据没有表现出改善，她将准备在9月美联储会议前考虑加快升息。梅斯特表示，由于美联储普遍支持在6Month and7月会议上各加息50个基点，今年秋季将成为关键时刻，届时美联储将评估物价涨幅是否从目前的逾40年高点放缓，进而决定是否调整加息步伐。指南金师认为；尽管黄金被视为一种通胀对冲的工具，但黄金对美国短期利率和债券收益率上升很敏感，这会提高持有黄金的机会成本，黄金多头可能会遭受更多痛苦。

　　黄金技术面分析；黄金亚盘反弹1817.40一线承压，没能强势突破上周五尾盘的反抽高点，隔日不过前一日的尾盘高。短线则会先行延续下探。亚盘在1818下方承压之后，盘中临盘调整了一下思路。在跌破了1808之后直接在1806-1807跟进了短线空单下看1796-1790.看了一个惯性的摔低。也是考虑到周线的收低，本周先会惯性的延续。目前1小时图是处于低位第三次摔低，要留意这种低位摔低后的节奏，伴随一个低点一个反抽。也就是形成三重低或多重低之后，指标无力创新低，短线会伴随修正。故低位做空单，摔低后要把握及时减仓或落袋。既不踏空行情，也不过分贪恋。目前结合4小时的下行通道接近了下轨支撑处，可能虽在反抽，虽然目前还不能说是止跌，但盘感上来看，短线可能有反弹修正。故目前位置暂时观望。等美盘后再决定。启稳后短线不排除会尝试看反弹。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，短期上方重点关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1783-1778Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis

　　原油消息面解析：国际油价方面，两油强势上涨。WTI原油收复110US dollar level, ultimately closing higher3.19%Report110.09dollar/桶；布伦特同样站上111dollar/桶，最终收涨3.10%Report111.16dollar/桶。由于国际能源市场的波动和油价的飙升，沙特阿美今年前3个月利润飙升了80%以上，净收入达到创纪录的395亿美元。伊拉克驻欧佩克代表表示，欧佩克同意伊拉克自6月起将生产配额提高5Ten thousand barrels, to45010000 barrels/日，并确认该国6-9月将逐月增产石油510000 barrels/Day.

　　原油技术面分析：原油今日开盘在110.862dollar/桶，开盘后出现了跳空，最高触及111.669dollar/桶遇阻，油价震荡下跌，低点触及109.512美元徘徊。原油日线走势图上看，油价出现了V型反转走势，日线级别三连阳，均线粘连向上发散中，油价运行在布林带中轨上方，指标上金叉向上发散中，多头动能持续放量中，多头震荡。从四小时级别上看，油价在（5month11日）触及98.195美元后，油价出现连续上涨，在这波上涨浪中跳帧幅度较小，今日油价跳空高开后油价走低，形成对于前期涨幅的调整，下方支撑关注107.9美元支撑，若在该位置企稳后油价多头强势不会改变，进一步下破在触及106.3水平支撑，油价多头将出现削弱。综上所述指南金师总结：原油今日调控回撤，指标高位超买，今日关注油价企稳情况，原油今日操作上指南金师建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注111.7一线阻力，破位看114.2USD resistance, lower support focus106.8-106.3Frontline support.

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