Guide Metallographer:5.16今日晚间黄金走势分析，操作建议及多空策略

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Monday（5month16日）欧盘盘末，现货黄金小幅下跌，目前交投于1803Near the US dollar, various US data and Fed officials' speeches last week strengthened expectations for future aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, helping the US dollar record six consecutive positive days on the weekly chart and repeatedly breaking new highs20The annual high caused a sharp drop in gold prices last week3.8%，在上周公布的更高通胀压力，以及5月第一周劳动力就业增加的支持下，贵金属经历一段高潮。这增加美联储在6Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points(bps)的可能性。为了实现价格稳定，美联储的决心可能会以更快的速度从市场中挤出流动性。现在，投资者正将注意力转移到定于周二公布的美国零售销售数据上。月度零售销售数据预计为0.7%，高于之前的0.5%。Kitco每周黄金调查显示，分析师看坏本周16to20日的金价表现。在针对分析师的调查中，有12%认为本周金价将会上涨，71%预期下跌，18%认为盘整持平。在普通投资者的投票当中，有51%认为本周金价将会上涨，31%预期下跌，18%认为盘整持平。指南金师认为，金价下跌的趋势近期内恐难扭转，虽然通胀数据仍高，但已经从高点下滑，而美联储则将继续升息，这使得黄金市场处于守势。短期来看美元的强势表现不会马上逆转，因此金价可能还将继续下探。长期而言，金价的趋势仍然偏多，但短线有较大的压力，建议投资人需要耐心等待进场的时机。

　　黄金上周五中阴线下行走低，创下近期新低位，一度破掉1800整数关口至1798.不过尾盘时段一波反抽最终还是收回1810上方。日线收成中阴线带有短下影线。而周线则是收盘一根大阴K线。周线形成四连阴下挫失守60周线，中期向下调整。受美联储激进加息前景，美元强势，令金价承压。日线已击穿年线支撑且收在之下。短期空头较为弱势，不过中期均线还未完全拐头向下形成空头发散，目前短均线领先拐头向下形成压制。4小时处于弱势下行通道中运行，结构性的整理弱台阶震荡下行，并不是一步到位，每次摔出一个新低都伴随长时间的震荡，震荡是为了蓄势进一步下挫，同时修正指标再蓄量能。上周五在短暂跌破1800之后又快速收回，短线1800关口处还小有买盘支撑，可能局部会有反弹修正。但此处止跌见底还言时过早，需要空间配合。没出现反转式的收复反弹，暂时不急于言底。底部的形成需要时间空间和形态的二次确认。目前只是局部创新低之后，短线伴随反弹修正，美元在短暂冲高后小有回调修正之势，也给予黄金短暂的反弹修正时间。目前不确定反弹的空间大小，是弱整理代替反弹修正还是有空间上的强反弹修正。还需要形态上的观察确认。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1815-1820Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1785-1790Frontline support.

　　黄金短线操作策略：

Suggest withdrawal1790-1795多单分批进场，目标1800-1805； Stop loss1785Below;

Suggest a rebound1815-1820空单分批进场，目标1805-1790； Stop loss1825upper

　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis

　　原油消息面解析：国际油价方面，两油强势上涨。WTI原油收复110US dollar level, ultimately closing higher3.19%Report110.09dollar/桶；布伦特同样站上111dollar/桶，最终收涨3.10%Report111.16dollar/桶。由于国际能源市场的波动和油价的飙升，沙特阿美今年前3个月利润飙升了80%以上，净收入达到创纪录的395亿美元。伊拉克驻欧佩克代表表示，欧佩克同意伊拉克自6月起将生产配额提高5Ten thousand barrels, to45010000 barrels/日，并确认该国6-9月将逐月增产石油510000 barrels/Day.

　　原油技术面分析：原油今日开盘在110.862dollar/桶，开盘后出现了跳空，最高触及111.669dollar/桶遇阻，油价震荡下跌，低点触及109.512美元徘徊。原油日线走势图上看，油价出现了V型反转走势，日线级别三连阳，均线粘连向上发散中，油价运行在布林带中轨上方，指标上金叉向上发散中，多头动能持续放量中，多头震荡。从四小时级别上看，油价在（5month11日）触及98.195美元后，油价出现连续上涨，在这波上涨浪中跳帧幅度较小，今日油价跳空高开后油价走低，形成对于前期涨幅的调整，下方支撑关注107.9美元支撑，若在该位置企稳后油价多头强势不会改变，进一步下破在触及106.3水平支撑，油价多头将出现削弱。综上所述指南金师总结：原油今日调控回撤，指标高位超买，今日关注油价企稳情况，原油今日操作上指南金师建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注111.7一线阻力，破位看114.2USD resistance, lower support focus106.8-106.3Frontline support.

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