Guo Shengshan:5.12早间黄金震荡不休会涨吗？原油独家操作建议

　成功的投资者，是善于独立思考，具有独特的见解，然而这独特的见解不是从天下掉下来，也不是从地下冒出来，是来自市场，来自实践，市场的实际走势才是千真万确，不会以人们的意愿而转变。在我的实践中也常常提醒自己，尽量使自己的投资理念、投资原则简单，投资成功就是一套赢利系统不断反复，简单，重复做，事情简单了也会就变得清晰了，对自己的投资行为约束也就变的有力

　　goldMarket trend analysis:

　　5month11日，周三，就在刚刚，美国公布了最新一期4Of the monthCPI数据，从年率来看，前值8.5%, expected8.1%，实际值8.3%虽然高于市场预期，但还是同比出现了明显的回落，而从月率来看，0.3%的增长幅度也低于上个月的1.2%水平，可以说是有拐头的迹象了，考虑到美联储加息缩表的不断加码，这种表现还是比较正常的，无独有偶，今天上午中国也公布了4Of the monthCPIandPPI数据，一个增长2.1%一个增长8%，都大幅超过预期和前值，中国的通货膨胀率增加对于期盼着降息的市场情绪来说是个降温，不过加息也不太可能。毕竟经济在这摆着。我们需要留意的是，随着这些重磅数据的出炉，联储方面会不会有官员在随后的讲话中提到紧缩节奏的松动，这是容易引发市场激烈反应的。

　　黄金昨日进一步收跌，如昨日预期一致，日线大阴K线收在低位之后，隔日整理蓄势破位低点是大概率事件。而昨日在经过一波反弹至1865附近承压后，整理了较长时间，拖到美盘时段，最终还是放量下挫击穿1850低点，美元在高位强整理，并没出现深调整。压制金价反弹空间，最终形成放量破低延续，并且收盘在低位，今日早盘开盘进一步惯性摔低，日线收低隔日通常会先走新低，再伴随震荡再延续的走法，节奏就是弱势行情中的单边延续，操作起来也就顺风顺水，也是积累波段的时候。小利靠震荡，大利靠单边。4小时走出了低位的弱势台阶下行，随着反弹高点的下移，反弹力度在减小，弱势单边的更能在释放，伴随着长时间整理再进一步蓄势破低。形成震荡式弱势台阶下行，上周整理的幅度大，主要是蓄势，过了蓄势的阶段，接下来就是本周的弱势放量，周初两个交易日已形成一波释放，今日看惯性的延续。而破低之后，今日的阻力在1855nearby.That is the transition point between the top and bottom. After breaking through the low last night, there was a slight pause here, and finally it closed down. Today, it directly fell and laid a weak foundation. Short term bearish sentiment remains unchanged. After the daily decline today, it will approach the support of the annual line. Today's touch is the first time it has been touched, and there may be a rebound. But considering that4小时的台阶形态，在未突破次高点之前，保持反弹做空思路不变，突破反转再调整思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作上郭晟衫建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1865-1870Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday(5month11day)Oil prices fell more than on Tuesday2%, falling below100For the second consecutive day of decline, reaching the lowest level in two weeks, the demand outlook is under pressure due to the spread of the epidemic and the growing risk of economic recession. Market concerns about tightening monetary policy have led to an increase in the US dollar, and a strong US dollar has made crude oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.APIData shows that US crude oil inventories have increased, and concerns about demand due to the spread of the pandemic have increased, dragging down oil prices; The expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has led to concerns in the market about tightening monetary policy, causing the US dollar to rise and bearish oil prices; Follow within the dayEIAData, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, may further stimulate a decline in oil prices. Focus on the United States within the day4monthCPIAnnual rate not seasonally adjustedEIAdata Thursday00:00Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy.

Technically speaking, crude oil continued to be bearish yesterdayKThe line closed lower and overall met expectations. After falling at a high daily level and closing below the moving average, it is normal for the market to continue to decline in shade the next day. And yesterday, accompanied by a wave of rebound104.10After being under pressure, the trading volume at the end of the day broke through the low point of the Asian market, and continued to decline again when opening today. The main reason for yesterday's rebound was that the daily line closed at a low level again, and yesterday's rebound was mainly to drive the moving average index to turn downward. After yesterday's consolidation, today's direction is relatively clearer, relying on104.10Be bearish at the critical point, and adjust the direction when breaking through.4After a wave of high and consecutive negative declines in the hour, yesterday's single positive rebound correction was combined with a continuous negative break and a downward trend,4The hour formed a second downward trend, driving the moving average index to turn downwards.1Hourly rebound104.10The second highest point of the form step, after breaking through the low point, forms a channel for the step to oscillate and fall, while leading the way4The hourly moving average turns downwards to form a suppression.1The hourly chart has experienced a weak trend and continued to decline, breaking through the low point today100.8附近先行看空。空间结合形态来定，今日再进一步下跌就会靠近区间下轨，未破下轨之前，还是宽幅震荡，破位才能打开空间。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路郭晟衫建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注107.5-108.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below102.8-102.3Frontline support.

　　——本文由郭晟衫gos1678Contribution.

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.