指南金师：今日黄金反弹修正看1855得失，原油重回100看反弹

　　【goldMarket Trend Analysis

Wednesday（5month11日）亚洲时段，现货黄金延续跌势失守200日均线，一度创近三个月新低至1831.30dollar/盎司，因美元重拾升势，同时投资者将注意力转向美国通胀数据，以寻找美联储货币政策策略的线索。尽管地缘局势依然动荡，但暂时被市场忽略，机构认为美国股市可能暂时见底，也对金价不利。美元今年已上涨近9%achieve20年高位，因担忧美联储在不造成经济衰退的情况下抑制通胀的能力，并且担心乌克兰战争和亚洲大国新冠疫情令增长放缓，投资者转向安全的避风港。在美联储上周将指标隔夜利率上调50Basis points, creating22年来最大升幅后，投资者一直试图评估美联储还将采取多大力度。根据CMEofFedWatch Tool，市场已完全消化了美联储在6月会议上再次加息至少50个基点的预期。多位美联储官员周二表示，有必要在下次会议上加息50个基点。黄金可能面临更多下跌压力，因通胀数据可能高于市场预期，强化美联储紧缩的理由，并推动美元继续上涨。总的来看；美元目前没有理由现在触顶，因美联储仍是全球经济中最激进的央行。就业形势稳定，支撑着经济，因此美联储没有理由停止提高利率。这将继续支撑美元。目前黄金跌势应该结束的根本原因并不存在。

　　黄金技术面分析；黄金昨日进一步收跌，如昨日预期一致，日线大阴K线收在低位之后，隔日整理蓄势破位低点是大概率事件。而昨日在经过一波反弹至1865附近承压后，整理了较长时间，拖到美盘时段，最终还是放量下挫击穿1850低点，美元在高位强整理，并没出现深调整。压制金价反弹空间，最终形成放量破低延续，并且收盘在低位，今日早盘开盘进一步惯性摔低，日线收低隔日通常会先走新低，再伴随震荡再延续的走法，节奏就是弱势行情中的单边延续，操作起来也就顺风顺水，也是积累波段的时候。小利靠震荡，大利靠单边。4小时走出了低位的弱势台阶下行，随着反弹高点的下移，反弹力度在减小，弱势单边的更能在释放，伴随着长时间整理再进一步蓄势破低。形成震荡式弱势台阶下行，上周整理的幅度大，主要是蓄势，过了蓄势的阶段，接下来就是本周的弱势放量，周初两个交易日已形成一波释放，今日看惯性的延续。而破低之后，今日的阻力在1855nearby.That is the transition point between the top and bottom. After breaking through the low last night, there was a slight pause here, and finally it closed down. Today, it directly fell and laid a weak foundation. Short term bearish sentiment remains unchanged. After the daily decline today, it will approach the support of the annual line. Today's touch is the first time it has been touched, and there may be a rebound. But considering that4小时的台阶形态，在未突破次高点之前，保持反弹做空思路不变，突破反转再调整思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1855-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1825-1820Frontline support.

Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:

Gold rebound1850-1855Short nearby, stop loss5Points, target1835-1830nearby

Gold Callback1825-1830Long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1840-1845nearby

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

Wednesday（5month11During the Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting99.32dollar/Barrel; Oil prices fell by more than2%, falling below100关口，为连续第二日下跌，创两周来最低，需求前景因疫情蔓延和日益增长的经济衰退风险而承压，市场对货币政策收紧的担忧令美元上涨，强势美元使原油对使用其他货币的买家来说更加昂贵。美国石油协会早间数据显示，上周美国原油和成品油库存有所增加。截至5month6During the current week, crude oil inventory increased160Ten thousand barrels. Increase in gasoline inventory82.3Ten thousand barrels, increased distillate oil inventory66.2万桶。石油价格连续第二个交易日回落，因为美国通胀的飙升加剧了人们对美联储将采取激进行动并导致经济陷入衰退的担心。市场对货币政策收紧的担忧令美元上涨，导致以美元计价的大宗商品的吸引力下降。阿联酋能源部长马兹鲁伊周二表示，更高的炼油利润而不仅仅是原油价格，正在推高消费者的燃料成本，他并补充说，数据显示石油市场是平衡的。“极端波动并不是因为供求关系，而是因为一些人不想购买某些原油，而且交易员从一个市场转移到另一个市场需要时间，沙特石油大臣警告说，整个能源市场都在耗尽产能，可能推动价格上涨，阿联酋官员也表示，如果没有更多的全球投资，OPEC+将无法在疫后需求完全复苏情况下保证充足的石油供应。总体来看，APIData shows that US crude oil inventories have increased, and concerns about demand due to the spread of the pandemic have increased, dragging down oil prices; The expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has led to concerns in the market about tightening monetary policy, causing the US dollar to rise and bearish oil prices; Follow within the dayEIA数据，以及美联储官员讲话，或进一步刺激油价走低。

　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日延续阴KThe line closed lower and overall met expectations. After falling at a high daily level and closing below the moving average, it is normal for the market to continue to decline in shade the next day. And yesterday, accompanied by a wave of rebound104.10After being under pressure, the trading volume at the end of the day broke through the low point of the Asian market, and continued to decline again when opening today. The main reason for yesterday's rebound was that the daily line closed at a low level again, and yesterday's rebound was mainly to drive the moving average index to turn downward. After yesterday's consolidation, today's direction is relatively clearer, relying on104.10做临界点看空即可，突破则调整方向。昨日104.0波段空单继续下看。今日配合反弹短线空。4After a wave of high and consecutive negative declines in the hour, yesterday's single positive rebound correction was combined with a continuous negative break and a downward trend,4The hour formed a second downward trend, driving the moving average index to turn downwards.1Hourly rebound104.10The second highest point of the form step, after breaking through the low point, forms a channel for the step to oscillate and fall, while leading the way4The hourly moving average turns downwards to form a suppression.1The hourly chart has experienced a weak trend and continued to decline, breaking through the low point today100.50附近先行看空。空间结合形态来定，今日再进一步下跌就会靠近区间下轨，未破下轨之前，还是宽幅震荡，破位才能打开空间。目前还有一定距离，破位还缺少力度，先看向下轨靠近。综合来看，今日原油操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注105.5-106.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below99.0-98.0Frontline support.