Guide Metallographer:5.11今日黄金操作建议，1700时代能否降临？

Market interpretation:

　　周二随着避险情绪再度升温，美元受到追捧，守在近20年高位附近，gold收盘则创三个月新低至1835附近，数据显示，OMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract Beijing Time5month10day22:46Instant trading within one minute3804Hand, total value of trading contracts7.04USD100mn

　　消息面上，周二纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储需要依赖数据，并根据这些情况调整政策。他补充称，在未来两次会议上各加息50个基点作为基本情况是合理的。此外周三也就是今日将公布美国消费者物价指数(CPI)，结合讲话来看CPI结果将可能影响美联储下一步计划。

Gold Technology Analysis:

　　黄金昨日如预期低位震荡，虽有所反弹，但上方在1865即再度承压，晚盘行情再度出现下跌，破位前低1850后，行情也顺势持续回落，最终跌至预期的200Daily line1835附近，日线收得一阴线。

　　日线结构上，黄金昨日反弹后再回落收阴是符合预期的，目前行情回撤至200Daily line1835-30区域势必会有争夺表现，因为此区域不仅仅是200日线支撑，同时也是日线级别较长周期的趋势线支撑，所以行情至此出现止跌反弹的可能性会比较大，尤其是技术性的反弹。同时目前美指居高不下，积压的调整需求可能一出激发，而一旦美元调整回修，那么黄金势必也会受到影响而反弹，可以说美元、黄金都运行到了一个关键的转折点，发生转折的概率势必会加大。日内上方则着重关注前低1850-55区域压力测试，如果能翻上此位之上站稳，则预示目前黄金的短线调整结束，且可能会有进一步的回升反弹，届时上方再关注5、10日线压力测试，能否冲破则要看美元调整的力度。而如果今明两日黄金止跌反弹，上方却不能站稳1850-55之上，或者仅仅出现低位震荡消化，那么对此风险就要有所防范，防范再度转弱势的可能性。

　　结合小时图走势，隔夜行情跌破1850后，后半夜的下跌以及今日开盘后的下跌也进行了小三波，完成技术需要，预示1835-30区域还是有支撑作用的，且目前行情也如期有所止跌反弹，日内暂看止跌，至于反弹，可以期待，但不要过于期待，上方着重关注1850附近压力反弹确认过程，其得失也将决定反弹的级别，以及对1835-30支撑的进一步确认有效的力度。

　　目前行情已经抵达此前预期的中期主要目标1835-30区域，所有此前空单可在此区域了结平单，日内短线操作上指南金师建议可转向侧重于尝试择低短多，但是目前尚未有明确转向信号，美元调整虽有预期也没有明确信号，所以多单的参与也是要谨慎对待。

　　具体操作建议如下：

　　1Within the day1835、1833/32可轻仓短多，早间已参与的短多继续持有，上方先看1838-40附近可减仓，预期日内反弹1847-50区域的概率还是有的，多单至此再做减仓，但莫要全平，可适度留有，如果美元调整，那么黄金回弹空间可能会放大。

　　2、如果日内行情跌回1830以下，暂时不做任何参与打算，后续策略有待根据实盘实时调整。

　　3、日内上方即便测压至1850一线，也莫再急于短空，具体需根据美指动向再做进一步策略调整。

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:

Technically speaking, crude oil continued to be bearish yesterdayKThe line closed lower and overall met expectations. After falling at a high daily level and closing below the moving average, it is normal for the market to continue to decline in shade the next day. And yesterday, accompanied by a wave of rebound104.10After being under pressure, the trading volume at the end of the day broke through the low point of the Asian market, and continued to decline again when opening today. The main reason for yesterday's rebound was that the daily line closed at a low level again, and yesterday's rebound was mainly to drive the moving average index to turn downward. After yesterday's consolidation, today's direction is relatively clearer, relying on104.10Be bearish at the critical point, and adjust the direction when breaking through.

　　4After a wave of high and consecutive negative declines in the hour, yesterday's single positive rebound correction was combined with a continuous negative break and a downward trend,4The hour formed a second downward trend, driving the moving average index to turn downwards.1Hourly rebound104.10The second highest point of the form step, after breaking through the low point, forms a channel for the step to oscillate and fall, while leading the way4小时均线拐头向下形成压制。空间结合形态来定，今日再进一步下跌就会靠近区间下轨，未破下轨之前，还是宽幅震荡，破位才能打开空间。

　　综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南老师解建议：以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注104-105Frontline resistance, short-term focus below99-98一线支撑。部分策略：反弹至104.1Frontline empty orders entering, stop loss104.8, look at the goal101.5-100.3Below99.0Nearby, stop loss98.20, Objective101.6-104.0，具体操作到位线下提示.

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