Dingsheng Jinshi: The bearish layout of non agricultural data, short-lived in the long run, and golden in the future...

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Message interpretation:

Friday(5month6day)The international gold price is sluggish and is expected to decline for the third consecutive week, with the US dollar and US bond yields rising supported by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. The market still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively in the future. Investors are now paying attention to the upcoming US announcement4Monthly non farm employment data to evaluate its impact on monetary policy. Market expectations, United States4Monthly increase in non agricultural employment population38Ten thousand, the unemployment rate has decreased0.1Percentage points to3.5%Average annual rate of increase in hourly salary5.5%。 If we see salary data again exceeding market expectations, this may have an impact ongoldDisadvantageous, as the market may view this as a possibility for the Federal Reserve to6Raising interest rates at monthly meetings75Basis points. fromADPAccording to data such as initial claims for unemployment benefits, the growth rate of non farm employment in the evening may be limited, and it may still provide an opportunity for gold prices to bottom out and rebound. But if the non farm performance is stronger than market expectations, it is necessary to be wary of a downward trend in gold prices1850The possibility of a pass.

Analysis of Gold Market Trend:

Gold under pressure this week1900The level continued to decline to1850Pass, subsequently announced by the Federal Reserve5The monthly interest rate resolution is consistent with market expectations, and this meeting will raise interest rates50Basis points. Gold support1860Strong rebound in gateway support to1900The level, but the rise is also a flash in the pan, and rising is hindered1910The position ushered in a night of collapse and murder, and this wave of rise was just a cover. The real intention of the main force was to sweep out the market first and then fiercely fall, directly swallowing up all the daily gains and refreshing the low to1872Position, unilateral downward40The US dollar has not rebounded. Sure enough, the Americans still know how to play, with plenty of space and depthVOne day tour of washing dishes. Tonight?20:30The United States will release non agricultural heavyweight data, and the current pre data value is:43.1Ten thousand people, expected to be39.1Ten thousand people, which shows the current market forecast4Monthly non agricultural growth rate is lower than3In the month of May, it is expected to boost the rise of gold, but it may also be a brief rise, depending on the difference in announced values. If the published value exceeds43.1Ten thousand people, then, are bearish gold trends, and there will be a surge and a fall. If far below39.1Ten thousand people, then gold may still need to be tested1900Da Guan.

The gold rose and fell back to1872Position, ultimately ending with a hammer line1878Position represents significant pressure above. This situation, this scene, thisKThe line will be higher than before1920That time was the same, but today's decline did not continue1866After a low point, it rebounded strongly to1880Above, obviously not playing according to common sense. It is reasonable to continue to decline today, so we need to clarify the main intention. Firstly, the monthly line ends with two consecutive highs and lowsKLines, especially4The monthly closing period is in line with the previous meteor line, which further clarifies the high pressure and is expected to continue the downward trend in May; Weekly Triple Yin CombinationMACDGreen kinetic energy release; The daily line also runs with the downward opening of the Bollinger Belt's lower track,MA5—MA10The moving average has gone down with a dead fork and failed to stabilize even after multiple rebounds1890Pass, repeatedly rising and falling. So, based on the above, the bearish trend is definitely not a doubt. The current rebound and rebound expectations are also a cover, and perhaps bulls are just struggling to support, making people mistakenly believe that bulls still need to continue to rise. Personally, if you look at rising and falling tonight, you can only see where you can go and then fall again. You can't blindly continue to fall, you have to take advantage of the trend and remain empty. Focus on tonight1890Gateway and1900Under the pressure of the big level, remember not to pursue too much, as you may fall below1877So the decline will continue.

In summary, the approach of non agricultural layout can adopt the approach of buying long at low prices, with a wave of upward trend after the game data is released. However, in order to achieve a large-scale unilateral approach, Dingsheng Jinshi believes that it is not very practical. Because Friday is in the weekKIt is temporarily supported. Coupled with the continuous roller coasters in the first few days of this week, a lot of kinetic energy has been overdrawn.

Reference position,1883Upper and lower layout processing, pressure position1900Position, strong support1860as well as1850Location of

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

Yesterday, crude oil hit a high, fell back, and leveled off. The high level saw an intensification of oscillations, leading to a new weekly high11.30.It was also the target of yesterday's bulls, reaching the end of the day and then falling back to the intraday low under pressure during the late trading period106.40.The high and low points are concentrated in the US market during the period of market washing. The final harvest of the daily line is Xiaoyang with an upper shadow lineKLine. The physical space is not large, but the sawing range is large. The daily line is still closed near the Bollinger Road track and has not fully opened. Therefore, the current unilateral efforts are still insufficient.4After a single negative decline in the hour, there was no continuous negative trend and no way to form a trend of rising, falling, and turning down. In the late trading session, the double positive rebound remained at a high level, and in some areas, the direction was still chosen in the midst of volatility. Today, we still need to pay attention to the long short transition. at present4The hour is temporarily running above the mid orbit. It is not ruled out to continue to detour repeatedly in high positions.1Hours ago, the double negative line fell, accompanied by a small rebound in the broken positive line. Is this rebound a strong recovery or a second high confirmation of resistance and further pressure to fall?To be determined. Further research is neededKTo confirm the structure and form of the line, the key is to look at yesterday's range breakout. If the break continues, it will transition back down. However, after breaking the high, it will be accompanied by repeated highs and lows, so try not to chase the high. Repeated highs and lows will intensify the frequency of washing and easily stop rising and peak. Currently, there is a slight passivation in the short term. Putting the time point in the European market to determine the continuation of intraday strength, overall, it is recommended to pay attention to the above in terms of crude oil operation ideas today111.5-112.0One line of resistance, pay attention below106.6-106.1Frontline support.

——This article is contributed by Ding Sheng Jin Shi.



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