Guide Metallographer:5.5today2点美联储公布利率决议重要讲话决定黄...

If a ship doesn't know which port to sail to, then the wind in any direction will not be downwind. If the transaction cannot be executed as planned, any trend in the market will be fleeting. Orders are always done as one pleases, the market is always what one does not want, always wanting to control everything, but actually being in the game! In a big environment, one should know to be content with the situation, while in a small ordinary situation, one should know how to overcome difficulties. There is no once and for all leisure, nor is there any easy blessing, gradually realizing that living hard is the norm. If you want to get more, you must not be afraid of hard work, sink your heart, and go all out!

　　goldMarket trend analysis

Wednesday（5month4During the Asia Europe period, spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading in1963dollar/盎司附近，市场对美国将公布的经济数据预期比较乐观，而且美联储大概率会加息50个基点，在美联储决议公布前，金价都可能受到压制，甚至存在震荡下跌的风险，但市场观望情绪渐浓，地缘局势似乎有所恶化，金价下行空间也会受到限制，分别关注1850关口支撑和200Daily moving average1835.4Nearby support.

Market Expectations for Fed Rate hikes50基点，黄金在加息预期下弱势运行，一旦美联储消息公布，如果加息50基点则靴子落地黄金探底回升，美元冲高下跌；如果25基点，则不及预期，一样是黄金见底美元见顶；如果不加息，则黄金上涨力度更大。小概率事件，加息75-100基点，概率无限接近于零。另外需要关注美联储鲍威尔讲话，对未来通胀的态度；鹰派则利空黄金，预计不会太大；稍微鸽派，则对贵金属是大利多！

　　日内黄金也出现横盘震荡，下方回撤1860附近，上方测压1872一线，整体呈现横盘状态，符合预期判断。晚间因美联储利率决定公布在即，市场情绪会非常的敏感多变，行情出现异动的风险概率也会增加，故晚间暂时不考虑任何新单参与。目前已有黄金空单的，可带好保本止损，留有继续下看1860、1850附近回撤，以及看利率决定公布后回撤1835-30The possibility of.

　　技术点位继续关注1875-78Pressure zone, follow below1860、1850支撑，预期美联储利率决定公布后，如果如预期加息幅度扩大，那么黄金势必会回撤一次1835-30区域，而如果加息幅度不及预期，那么黄金可能出现一波回弹，但回弹动能依然可能会比较有限，上方关注1890-1900Belt testing.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday（5month4During the Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting103.42dollar/Barrel; Oil prices fell by more than1%，疫情引发的需求担忧盖过了欧洲可能对俄罗斯实施原油禁运的影响，此外，伊朗与美国通过交换书面信息方式进行伊核谈判。国际原油价格目前维持在每桶105美元附近，在俄罗斯入和乌克兰冲突后，许多炼油商对俄罗斯石油的抵制加剧了OPEC的困境。油价上涨正在推高物价，威胁经济增长。OPEC代表称，该组织可能会维持原定增产计划，在周四开会时批准每天增产43万桶原油。但正如调查显示的那样，OPEC可能难以兑现大部分承诺。分析师表示，“美联储本周料加息50基点，升息75基点的可能性不到10%。交易员将密切关注鲍威尔讲话，以了解6月份会议上是否可能升息75基点。”总体来看，疫情蔓延加剧需求担忧，伊核谈判通过书面形式进行，油价短线或维持震荡偏空，关注欧盟对俄的新一轮制裁，以及俄罗斯对西方发出的叫停出口和交易的警惕。

　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日小阴星K线收盘，日线已连续且持续性的星K线整理，虽有一定波动空间，但相对于近期的大波动基数，目前稍有收敛。日线也是停顿震荡收缩空间当中。昨日整理后在周一高点之下承压回落至102.20.最终收盘在中性位置，日线继续钝化等待突破。日线布林道平行收缩当中。上轨阻力在107.80.Lower rail support96.20.也是处于近期的宽幅区间内运行。目前收盘在中轨附近。日线暂定震荡思路对待。 4hourK线形态和均线系统都走得凌乱，K线结构上下洗盘震荡当中。区间未突破。多空延续性不足，而均线指标凌乱发散显示短期仍将持续震荡。震荡行情中，点位比方向更关键。卡住区间高空低多都有机会，等待震荡中的突破方向。未破之前先卡区间短线灵活应对。综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注106.5-107Frontline resistance, short-term focus below99.5-100Frontline support.

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