5.4黄金决议当前市场谨慎，5月“小非农”值得关注

　　好茶不怕细品，好事不怕细论，活鱼会逆流而上，死鱼才随波逐流。在面对行情也是一样，百句空言，不如一个行动，精准策略，不如一次执行。市场中最可怕的不是没有行情，不是没有机会，而是茫然，一个不知道去哪里人，面朝哪个方向都是逆向，任何一个方向吹来的风将都是逆风

Precious metal related information:

　　当前，美联储5Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的预期已被完全消化。事实上，市场对加息75个基点的可能性也进行了定价，利率交易员预计6Raising interest rates at monthly meetings75The probability of a basis point is approximately35%。总体而言，市场预计美联储到年底将加息超过10次，但到2023year2月加息不到11次，届时美联储预计将停止紧缩周期并开始宽松政策。贵金属经销商金拓表示，将利率提高3%似乎极不可能大幅降低通胀压力并将通胀预期带回可接受的目标水平。从历史数据上看，通货膨胀率过高的年份，也伴随着利率远远高于美联储3%to3.5%的目标利率。

InternationalgoldTrend analysis:

Gold opened today at1867.72dollar/盎司，亚欧盘出现了先跌后涨走势，价格二次触及1861水平企稳反弹，最高触及1872水平遇阻，从日线形态来看，黄金收录一根小阳线，在前期大阴下跌后，金价出现了企稳反弹，进一步表明短线上出现了企稳迹象。从四小时级别上看，黄金在4month18日遇阻1998美元高点之后，金价向下运行了一个下跌五浪走势，最低触及1850水平出现企稳反弹，从走势格局上看，黄金这波下跌行情已经走完，后市将出现一个调整ABC形态，如果多头在C浪级别出现加速，有望改变整体下跌趋势，反之黄金将延续空头。综上所述指南老师总结：黄金今日探底回升，关注多头延续是否突破上方阻力位，今日操作上考虑回撤布局多单为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1878-1892USD resistance, lower support focus1860-1856USD support.

　　今日黄金在1863-1860区域二次布局多单，最高给到1872遇阻，随后在1867附近同样二次布局多单，美盘多头延续将有望考验1878-1892Area.

　　【crude oil技术面分析】

　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日小阴星K线收盘，日线已连续且持续性的星K线整理，虽有一定波动空间，但相对于近期的大波动基数，目前稍有收敛。日线也是停顿震荡收缩空间当中。昨日整理后在周一高点之下承压回落至102.20.最终收盘在中性位置，日线继续钝化等待突破。日线布林道平行收缩当中。也是处于近期的宽幅区间内运行。目前收盘在中轨附近。日线暂定震荡思路对待。4hourK线形态和均线系统都走得凌乱，K线结构上下洗盘震荡当中。区间未突破。多空延续性不足，而均线指标凌乱发散显示短期仍将持续震荡。震荡行情中，短期关注布林线中轨101.0附近支撑，若失守该位置，则增加短线看空信号，进一步支撑在99.81附近，然后是布林线下轨98.34附近支撑。上方10Moving average resistance105.07附近，若能顶破该阻力，则削弱短线看空信号；布林线上轨阻力目前在107.44附近，若意外顶破该阻力，则增加中线看涨信号；综合来看，今日原油操作思路上指南金师建议上方短期关注108.0-109.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below103.5-103.0Frontline support.

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