Guide Metallographer:5.4今日黄金反弹修正，1880为兵家必争之地

　　好茶不怕细品，好事不怕细论，活鱼会逆流而上，死鱼才随波逐流。在面对行情也是一样，百句空言，不如一个行动，精准策略，不如一次执行。市场中最可怕的不是没有行情，不是没有机会，而是茫然，一个不知道去哪里人，面朝哪个方向都是逆向，任何一个方向吹来的风将都是逆风！缘来不拒，缘走不留，茫茫人海相识成为朋友也是一种缘分。佛渡有缘人，我带有心人！

　　goldTrend analysis:

　　昨天黄金亚盘如期从1867下跌最低到达1850一线，欧盘探底回升，美盘蓄势回0.236后再次上扬，最高到达了1878日图二线压制回落，收盘以一根带有下影线实体的小阳线报收于1868。

　　从日图来看空头趋势没有发生改变，但是价格至1998Since the decline, the magnitude has reached148The US dollar, and today's decline in time is13KAnd the previous upward wave was also13K，所以形成一种对称，所以趋势虽然是空，但个人认为下跌处于尾声阶段，再去盲目跟风空已不可取，至于短空像昨晚1878这种关键点无所谓，其次就是对于本次利率决议，本周四凌晨2Point sum2点半美联储利率及讲话，抛开消息，我们从美指来看，价格4月到达月线上方加速线，而本月几次上冲未失败，结合连7年的数据来看，美指均未冲过月线上方加速线，而日图美指价格已由外侧转向内侧，日图冲高回落的机率较大。

Market Expectations for Fed Rate hikes50基点，黄金在加息预期下弱势运行，一旦美联储消息公布，如果加息50基点则靴子落地黄金探底回升，美元冲高下跌；如果25基点，则不及预期，一样是黄金见底美元见顶；如果不加息，则黄金上涨力度更大。小概率事件，加息75-100基点，概率无限接近于零。另外需要关注美联储鲍威尔讲话，对未来通胀的态度；鹰派则利空黄金，预计不会太大；稍微鸽派，则对贵金属是大利多！

　　从四小时图来看，昨天价格出现大阳拉升，但是没有走出连续破位行情，最终在日图二线压制，而当下弱多仍然存在，唯一就是小时图价格至冲破上线出现回落，目前属于调整式，短周期不振，调整重点是下线支撑1858这里，而四小时的空档在1861一线，而上方重点是73-78破位向87-92去运行，下破下轨48这里才能打开下跌空间，而加速线27-20一线仍然是中线布多的机会，因此综上所述得出结论如下：

　　操作上：保守回1858一线买入跌破54Out, target73-76broken78see87-93.激进在四小时下线1863这里防止踏空轻仓先进，防守57.目标同上，但是到午盘还没有拉升调仓，等58一线再进，全天任何时间给27-20分批买入，防守13.上方压制73-78-87-93。

　　【crude oil技术面分析】

　　4小时级别震荡上涨后回调；MACDDead fork,KDJDead fork,K线高位吞没看空+上影线阴线，短线偏向空头，关注布林线中轨102.89附近支撑，若失守该位置，则增加短线看空信号，进一步支撑在99.81附近，然后是布林线下轨98.34附近支撑。上方10Moving average resistance105.07附近，若能顶破该阻力，则削弱短线看空信号；布林线上轨阻力目前在107.44附近，若意外顶破该阻力，则增加中线看涨信号；进一步较强的阻力在109.81附近。综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注107-107.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below99.5-100Frontline support.  

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