李聯贏：5.3黄金直线下跌还会涨吗？黄金原油，纸白银行...

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　goldMarket trend analysis;



Tuesday（5month3日）亚欧时段，现货黄金低位徘徊，目前交投于1860Near the checkpoint, overnight gold prices hit a new low of two and a half months1854Near the US dollar, investors weighed the expectation of a significant tightening by the Federal Reserve, driving the US dollar's rise to expand10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds further increased3%(for2018年以来首次），市场预期随着各国央行准备逆转新冠疫情期间采取的大规模购债措施，全球势将加速退出量化宽松，对金价打压明显。美联储料在5month3Solstice4日的政策会议上加息50个基点，此后还将多次加息。交易员们预计从现在到年底料合计加息约250个基点。美联储还料开始缩减资产负债表规模，每月缩表规模可能高达950亿美元，缩表速度料远快于年初的预测。美联储将通过让其持有的政府债券和抵押贷款支持证券到期，而不是主动出售债券来实现缩表目标。决策者可能在后期阶段出售抵押贷款支持债券，回归全部国债的持仓组合。整体来看，美联储的大幅加息和缩表预期支撑美元和美债收益率，而且全球多个央行都将逐步加息，在本周美联储利率决议前，仍可能会对金价形成压制，金价短线存在进一步试探200Daily moving average1835The possibility of nearby support. But after the Federal Reserve's decision, investors need to pay attention to the "boot landing" market, as well as the geopolitical situation and the support of bargain hunting for gold prices.



Gold fell at the beginning of yesterday's trading session, with an extremely weak bearish downward trend and no rebound correction. The weak consolidation continued straight down until reaching a point in the US market1854.4There was a slight pause at the low point. As for the daily structure, it has fallen below1890Formed after low pointCThe wave continued to decline, followed by a rebound correction last Friday. This week, it opened low and closed low, while the correction after rising and falling again accumulated momentum and accelerated the volume increase in the technical structure. After yesterday's volume increase, it still closed at a low level, and the next day's short-term outlook will continue appropriately. 4Hour after hour, a series of negative drops broke through the low, breaking a new low in recent times, starting from last Friday1920Nearby pressure forms a step sub high point, forming a new wave of step down channels, but the fluctuation base is relatively large1920The decline is also a straight line break through the low and downward trend.KThe line is extremely weak, with consecutive negative declines and a large fluctuation base. The rebound space is slightly smaller. The method of weak correction mainly focuses on horizontal consolidation, while the previous rebound happened to be to accumulate momentum to break through the low.4Maintaining a downward trend during the hour is usually bearish. Yesterday DayKLine Dayin Lowers, Relying on1900Make a critical point, and1890It is the watershed of strength and weakness that breaks the low mouth. Below this level, the rebound remains bearish. Today's first resistance is1872破低口附近，留意能否延续昨日的极弱下行。极弱下行，白盘就是高点直接阴跌放量节奏。把握小周期找切入口进场，以免踏空点位。空间也是边走边看，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作上李联赢建议短期上方重点关注1883-1888Frontline resistance in the US dollar, following below1850-1845Frontline support,


Analysis of the market trend of paper and silver:



Paper silver4小时级别的最新情况。4小时图中4.98Element is pressure,4.56元为支撑，白银连续九天的阴线已经将多头完全击溃，昨日多头虽然尝试反弹自救但大跌走势再次创出新低，宣告了空头完胜，纸白银跌至4.71，刷新近期的一个低点，由于纸白银这段时间以来，一直处在压力与支撑的中间位置，纸白银整理突破回踩前期顶部的顶底转换走势并没有改变，目前已经进入到了尾声不建议大幅继续看空，同时气泡已经于K线相接，纸白银今天预计将继续震荡调整，操作上李联赢建议布局多单为主，建议4.78附近买入，目标看5.03。



　　crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend



Tuesday（5month3During the Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting105.39dollar/桶；油价周一逆转跌势收高，因柴油市场上扬，且市场担心欧盟或对俄罗斯原油实施禁运，可能抑制供应。分析师表示，全球柴油需求与供应失衡，这使得买家一看到油价下跌就买入。欧佩克+将于本周四开会，尽管俄乌冲突后油价飙升，预计将维持此前达成的增产协议。欧洲联盟各成员国能源部长2日在比利时首都布鲁塞尔举行会议，讨论针对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁，包括禁止进口俄罗斯石油。尽管一些欧盟官员声称欧盟委员会打算在近期敲定新一轮制裁，但欧盟各国仍未就对俄石油禁令达成共识。根据路透调查，除2月外，从去年10From month to this year3月的产量都没有达到承诺的增产幅度，因为许多生产商由于投资不足导致缺乏生产更多原油的能力，而疫情加速了这一趋势。总体来看，欧盟或对俄罗斯原油实施禁运，可能抑制供应，供应担忧增加，日内关注API数据，如果进一步显示库存下降，油价短线或震荡上行。



　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日先抑后扬，日线下探回升收平，开盘即承压走跌，美盘时段最低下行至100.28.尾盘时段再反抽创日内的高点，形成高低点都集中在美盘时段的拉锯震荡，日线最终收盘小阳十字K线，日线连续两根十字星K线进入钝化整理，虽然昨日波动较大，但收盘依旧在中性位置，形成了短线拉锯，尾盘的强力完全收复倒是出乎了意料。日线下探中轨再收回，重新陷入拉锯。4小时结构相对偏凌乱，昨日单阴下挫后再配合单阳拉起，且完全性收复。使得短线多空仍续量不足，而是一个震荡节奏，短期内陷入宽幅区间拉锯。后市仍要等待突破才能确定单边方向，目前未破之前，短线保持震荡思路对待。结合形态盘中短线灵活应对。波动基数大，拉锯反复，短线多空都有机会，震荡为前，方向为后，关键在于区间卡点。综合来看，今日短线操作思路李联赢建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注107-108Frontline resistance, short-term focus below102-103Frontline support.

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