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Life is always about making choices and waiting for results. The road cannot be smooth sailing, there will always be obstacles, and mediocrity is not the goal that everyone pursues. The investment market is also the same, it cannot be smooth sailing, and windfall profits are everyone's dream, but there are always various temptations and traps along the way. Accustomed to unilateral behavior, one is always stifled by shocks and washes, which is the law of the market.
goldAnalysis of the latest market trend:
Wednesday(4month27日)亚洲时段,目前现货黄金窄幅震荡,目前交投于1902美元附近,因为担忧亚洲疫情、全球增长和美联储激进加息,美股股市隔夜大幅下跌,纳指更是创近一年半新低,吸引了一些逢低买盘,给金价提供支撑,但美国3月耐用品订单反弹幅度大于预期,美元继续走高,再度刷新逾两年新高,这限制了金价的反弹空间。从技术面来看,金价短线仍有一定的下行风险。
整体来看,尽管黄金被认为是对冲通胀和如乌克兰战争等不确定性的工具,再加上美股大跌和疫情担忧等因素,金价受到一下逢低买盘的支撑,但对美国快速加息的预期令涨幅受限,因这会增加持有无收益黄金的机会成本,在强势美元的压制下,金价短线仍有进一步下行风险。本交易日继续关注俄乌局势和亚洲新冠疫情的相关消息,留意全球股市和大宗商品的走势。
黄金周二如期反弹,价格盘最低1897一线,上行最高到1911,符合预期,从当下来看,日图下跌趋势不改,均线系统空头排列,这点不用质疑,但四小时出现弱多信号,在昨晚二次形成小双底上行,也就是说日图虽然是空头,但是四小时级别的修正仍将继续,而修正有两种,一是横向修正,一种是上行修正,而目前来看上行修正的机率偏大一些,因为周一下跌反弹修正从15-30,昨天走的是小时线级别,虽然也出现了冲高回落,但至少是没破底,所以综合来看还大周期日图看空,小周期有反弹修正上探,日内还是先多后空。
黄金这一轮多头是比较关键的时刻,真正的下跌是从1998开始的。按照江恩星向上回踩的极限结束1893,同样也是高位震荡时间拉长后出现的回踩。但是价格依然是在1885位置顶住,周一其实是我们上周提出的低点时间窗;只不过上周五没有出低点,或者是我们把低点放得太高,并没有考虑到极限回踩。不过说这一些都已经没意义,过去了的就是过去了。一直讲过去对后市的节奏也不好把握,只能说我们把这一波行情想得太简单,其实关键就是高位震荡后下跌结束,后面到底是重新上升,还是二次回踩,我们选择重新上升走震荡,将1891区域当做反弹1953区域位置的低点,那我们仍然是按照前期计划,看后面会不会重新上升!综合来看,今日黄金操作上指南金师建议短线回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期关注1915-1920One line of resistance, pay attention below1880-1885Frontline support.
crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend:
昨日指南金师公开99.9位置做空,白盘冲高测试阻力在99.9下方遇阻,跌至97的位置。欧盘二次确认在99.9继续遇阻回落98.7。跟上思路就是获利。尾盘走出一波加速大涨高位收尾,这种基础上今日原油先去看涨,后去看跌。日内需留意104的做空时机!
Short term price trading102.5Area, intraday time correction position at100.5附近,该位置在今日会存在有效支撑,价格走出强势回踩确认之时可以直接多。若价格直接冲高,可去关注104的价位,首次抵达先空一波。该位置是3-4月份的聚集日高,在今日会存在有效阻力。
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