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做任何事情都必须拥有一个良好的心态,投资也不例外。心态平和时,思路往往比较清晰,面对行情的波动能够客观的看待和分析,才能够理性操作。
goldLatest market analysis:
黄金消息面解析:现货黄金周一惨遭抛盘,日内暴跌40USD, lowest touch1891First line, decline1.9%,由于美联储在5月会议上升息50个基点的预期已成定局,交易商周五纷纷押注美联储在未来几个月将进一步升息。美国10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds is close to3%,美元走强,美元指数一度触及101.75水平,再度刷新两年来最高水平,使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来说更加昂贵。目前市场愈发预期美联储5Monthly interest rate increase at least50Basis points,6Monthly interest rate hike50个基点以应对极高的通胀水平,促使基金经理大举削减黄金持仓,增加空头头寸,金价短期内再次冲击2000dollar/盎司的可能性大幅下降。
黄金技术面分析:黄金日线图来看,金价周一延续跌势,失守1900大关,在触及3month29Daily low point1890附近后跌势有所放缓,目前MACDDead fork operation,KDJ死叉运行,短线偏向空头,后市继续关注1890附近支撑,如果进一步下破,则金价可能会跌向100Daily moving average1874附近。但鉴于1890目前仍为金价提供有效支撑,短线需要提防金价反弹调整的可能性,上方首先关注60Daily moving average resistance1920附近阻力,若收复该位置,则削弱短线看空信号,进一步阻力在20Daily moving average1944nearby,金价需要重新运行在该位置上方才能重拾看涨预期。
受市场对美联储加息预期影响,日内黄金自开盘起便一路震荡下跌,跌破短线多个支撑,目前行情跌至1900下方,原本预期行情可能会用2-3日震荡下跌回撤至此,而目前行情仅仅只用半天即回撤至此,面对如此弱势状态不得不高度谨慎对待。在上周五出现阴线贯穿跌破的情况下,今日行情直接下跌,并未有出现一定的回弹,这说明市场情绪已经一边倒的看空,且下方跌破1900,可见下跌空头力度和决心也是很大的。按照目前状态,1890此位很有可能成为短线的争夺位而已,不排除行情继续向下释放的可能,届时下方先看前期低点1880附近,如果低点1891不能有效破位那么会反弹修正,综合来看,今日黄金操作上指南老师建议短线以反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期关注1915-1920One line of resistance, pay attention below1890-1885Frontline support.
crude oilanalysis
原油上周整个市场都在调整,上周周四日线虽然收阳,但是小时周期看,依旧是明显的震荡走势,所以周五回落也并不意外。周线收阴,说明4月中旬的上涨已经结束,趋势偏空,目前日线布林带收口,重点关注多次试探的95-93支撑点位,不过此次回落应该大概率能给出近两个月的新低,理由就是,之前原油大涨,得益于地缘政治局势影响,目前回落,一方面是局势被市场消化,另一方面还是原油一直在加大产出,弥补俄的空缺,也算是对俄能源的制裁。原油维持空头思路,下方重点关注95-93支撑。今天早间开盘,原油直接走弱,短线操作就不考虑追空了,等调整100附近再空。
Operation suggestions
Crude oil in99.8Short nearby, stop loss100.4Stop loss97-95
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