Guide Metallographer: 黄金走势“庐山大瀑布”，多空又难以抉择

　　失手不等于失控，放开不等于放任，错误可以整改，失误也可以弥补。失控则覆水难收，放任则随波逐流，没有方向的航行难以到达彼岸，没有理念的交易难以大获全胜。不要在行情让你左右为难的时候进行交易，那样既委屈了资金也糟践了自己，在一个值得出手的地方，即使躺着中枪，也要姿势漂亮。市场没有对错的争论，只有多空的博弈，短线的波动难改长期的趋势，不要用种庄稼的思路做投资，机会把握好可以造就自己，把握不好就只能埋葬自己，心有多大，舞台就有多大，投资的征途上，你才是真正的掌舵者。

　　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend

Friday（4month22日）亚洲时段，现货黄金徘徊于1952附近；现货黄金周四下跌，盘中一度跌逾1%, refresh the low point of the past two weeks to1936.60dollar/盎司，美债收益率上升和美元走强给金价带来压力，投资者预计美联储将大幅收紧政策。美国旧金山联储主席戴利周三称，她认为在5Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的理据“充分”且“牢固”，在通胀高企的情况下，美联储今年的加息路径被普遍认为是合适的。美国10年期国债收益率升向周三触及的逾三年高位，市场押注将大幅加息，债市再次遭遇严重抛售。分析师表示，本周美联储的鹰派言论和实际利率回归正值，降低了黄金和白银的吸引力。市场分析师称，从技术方面看，金价正在每盎司1940-1960美元附近盘整，除此之外，还可能在1915-1930美元左右寻获支撑。鲍威尔表示，在美联储5month3-4日的会议上加息50个基点将是“选项之一”，届时美联储将批准下次加息，预计今年还会有一系列加息举措。此前欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，由于俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争影响家庭和企业，欧洲央行可能需要进一步下调增长预期。拉加德的言论与其他欧洲央行官员的鹰派言论形成鲜明对比，后者似乎暗示欧洲央行官员加大了对欧元区利率将很快被上调的押注。

　　黄金从技术面来看，黄金昨日窄幅震荡，维持在前一日的区间内拉锯，最低1936.59.highest1958开盘价，日线收盘小阴K线，空间走得不大，相对于周初的放量，周中以震荡结尾，今日周线收官之作，由于短线指标和结构进入钝化。暂时看不出单边迹象，尤如雾里看花。周尾暂定震荡思路不变，区间盘中待定。4小时下探回升收平，短线趋势并未得到延续，加上均线指标还处于凌乱发散当中，长均线金叉向上，短均线凌乱，短线空间稍有收缩，暂时看不出多空延续。局部可能进入拉锯震荡。1小时图此前的连阴下挫后昨日局部放缓，并没有破低延续弱势，但反弹空间相对也有限，使得多空续量不足，美元短线强势仍将侧面压制金价。日内短线震荡思路对待，盘中灵活应对切入。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1963-1965Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1935-1930Frontline support.

　　crude oilTrend analysis

　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日短线走得反复，空间不算大，但拉锯的幅度较大，最低102.20一带启稳，摸高105.42高点后再承压收在低位，日线收盘小阳星K线，空间走得不大，拉锯的频率大，给人一种空间走得很大的错觉。日线星K线整理局部钝化。今日周线收官之作，震荡收尾思路对待。4小时此前高位滑落后，昨日没能延续，反向收复104.00前一日高点，但收盘依旧不强势，短线伴随着阴阳转换的迹象。K线结构阳吞阴再配合回吐收低，局部拉锯暂时看不出单边方向。震荡行情中，点位为王，

Crude oil rebounded at the opening104.3Nearby, exploring the descent102Nearby, explore on the rebound105.3Nearby, exploring the descent102.2附近收盘104附近，原油再次进入区间震荡，原油激进105.3看空看104and102.2Dislocation100.2Okay, steady106.8Empty Look105.4and103.3You can, or102.2Look more103.8and106.6Dislocation108.8Okay, steady98.3Look more100and104.8即可，具体做单建议以实时点位为准。

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