指南金师：朽木不雕难以成器，好钢不磨难以成才

　　不谋全局者不足谋一城，市场风云，变幻莫测，定其心，观其势，谋定而后动，不乱于心，不困于情，运筹帷幄之中，方能决胜千里之外。

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of gold news: Thursday(4month21day)亚市盘中，现货黄金短线持续下滑，金价目前跌至1951dollar/盎司附近。俄乌谈判传来新消息，令市场避险情绪有所降温，这打击黄金多头。本交易日投资者聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话。本周多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，若鲍威尔也展现鹰派立场，美元有望获得重大上涨动能，若如此，黄金面临遭遇抛售的风险。香港时间周五凌晨1点，美联储主席鲍威尔将出席国际货币基金组织(IMF)小组讨论会。在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)5月会议前，这将是他在美联储“噤声期”之前最后一次公开露面。按照美联储规定，在FOMC召开会议之前的10天内，美联储将进入“噤声期”，美联储官员被禁止继续对外界就货币政策观点发声。在3At the monthly meeting,FOMCAnnounce raising the federal funds rate target range to0.25%-0.5%的区间，符合市场预期。这是美联储自2018year12月以来首次加息。在3月份加息后，鲍威尔曾明确暗示未来可能加息50个基点，缩表可能从5月开始。市场认为鲍威尔可能在本周讲话中强化加息50个基点的预期。美元升值、国债收益率上升以及对美联储加息的预期可能会在未来使金价面临多重助力。相反如果10年期美国国债收益率因为美国经济增长疑虑而下跌，这可能在未来几个月推动金价远高于2000dollar/ounce.

　　黄金昨日先抑后扬，日线收成小阳K线，最低下探1938一线启稳，盘中由于美元高位下挫。以及对通胀和乌克兰战争导致经济增长放缓的担忧。提振黄金短线反弹收高，而技术结构上此前一个交易日快速下挫后，指标并未完全拐头，隔日只要一停顿。就会陷入震荡，短期依旧单边动能不足，加之消息面的不定性，而美元短期多空转换频繁，也将侧面影响到黄金的短线方向。短线伴随着反复拉锯。4小时连阴下探后伴随三连阳的反弹修正。由于昨日下跌持续性不强，今日仍是多空延续之关键，均线指标依旧未拐头向下，若是昨日延续弱势下挫，今日指标向下，就会表现弱势下行，而昨日走出反弹。使得日内短线继续回归拉锯震荡。加之震荡行情中的反复。K线结构和指标都未形成单边，日内短线暂时以震荡思路对待。1小时图的多空分水岭在1960-1965一带，亚盘观望，欧盘争夺分水岭来决定日内区间，综合来看，今日黄金操作上指南金师建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注1970-1975Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1940-1935Frontline support.

　　crude oil今日独家走势分析：

　　原油价格周三波动不大，对经济增长和石油需求停滞的更广泛担忧与供应收紧的影响大体两相抵消。但随着俄乌冲突升级，冲突持续时间延长的可能性增加，市场中来自俄的供应可能进一步减少。昨晚公布的EIA数据显示，上周美原油库存大幅下降，减少800Ten thousand barrels, to4.137亿桶，因出口猛增至逾两年高点，而产量接近疫情前水平。尽管美库存骤降利好油价，俄乌冲突存进一步升级风险；但全球经济悲观预测下，需求或下降的担忧，油价或维持震荡。

　　原油昨天整体走势还是震荡，只不过波幅比较大，整体方向还是有点弱，而我们昨天多空把握的很不错，早间先是102的多单获利103.2.而随后晚间给出103.5Stop profit from empty orders101.6，节奏把握的非常完美。4hourKThe manifestation of the line shape is that after horizontal consolidation, the single yin plummets, followed by the single yang recovering nearly half of the lost ground. One yin and one yang have returned to the opening price, and currently the high resistance of small platforms is104.0.This bit is4The dividing point between strength and weakness of the hour, if weak, will be further supported today after the rebound correction at the end of last night104.0If hindered, it will continue to fall, and if broken, it will continue to return to touch high and fluctuate.1Small level interval sawing in the hour chart, yesterday's high and low points104-100It is the continuation point of today's bullish breakthrough. Conservative and other breakthroughs, while radical right-wing trading104.0下方择机短空，突破再调整思路。

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