Guide Metallographer:2.20黄金提前布局已成，万事俱备只欠“东风”

In this market, the most fair one is the market situation. All investors are facing the same market situation. However, facing the same market situation, investors will inevitably make different choices. When the market hits wave after wave like waves, some people face opportunities, prepare well, face them head-on, and stop making profits; Some people are afraid and unprepared, and are caught off guard by the market. The market is fair to everyone, it depends on how you face it. If you are the former, I can add icing on the cake for you; If you are the latter, I can lend you a helping hand.

　　goldLatest Market Analysis

Wednesday(4month20day)，国际金价延续隔夜跌势，创4month8Recently, it has reached a new low1938.90美元，美债收益率上升盖过了避险资金流入带来的利好。但乌克兰危机引发的担忧依然主导着金市避险买盘。隔夜金价收低近1.5%。美债收益率继续飙升至多年高位，因投资者准备在美联储试图大举加息，以便遏制不断飙升的通胀。美国3月通胀年率已升创逾40年高至8.5%。由于乌克兰危机恶化和通胀担忧加剧，促使投资者转向黄金市场避险，金价周一逼近重要整数关口每盎司2000美元。分析师表示，黄金近期的跌势不意味着金市发生了结构性变化。国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二将其对全球经济增长的预测下调了近一个百分点，理由是乌克兰战争(严重扰乱供应链)，并警告称通胀现在对许多国家来说是一个“明显而现实的危险”。包括美联储在内的已经开始或计划开始加息的央行还准备缩减资产负债表，这预计将限制信贷，并给已经放缓的全球经济增加新的下行压力。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金近期突破1940区间压力，一路狂奔至1980关口受阻，在美国复活节之际，多头迎来获利回吐，承压1980关口快速下探1960关键位置。本周俄乌避险情绪重燃，黄金在1960得以反弹回升，成功突破1980联排顶部突飞猛进至2000大关附近。不过好景不长，“鹰王”布拉德发话称“美联储需要迅速采取行动”，黄金迎来大幅回落，直接吞没日内大部分涨势，并且失守1980关口，收以长上引线，有流星线信号。

　　黄金隔日熟悉的画面再次呈现，多次冲击1980关口受阻，美盘更是迎来瀑布回落，连破1960—1950关键支撑，刷新低位至1945附近，跌幅将近高达50美金。相信关注我 的朋友就知道，隔日文章里本人多次强调1980关口的重要性，并且全网公开在1980-1982布局空单看继续下行走低。日内连续两次在1980布局的空都成功获利，特别是晚间布局的1981空完美狙击美盘高位迎来瀑布式下跌，成功收割美盘大部分跌势，其走势和指南金师预期完全一致，上看走势分析图就一目了然，只是冲高2000大关得以加速走低，跌幅提早演绎了。现在日线震荡上行格局已被打破，1950Da Guan and1960关口也连连失守，流星线后收大阴，更加明确高位压力；四小时也是三连大阴回落，从而打开布林下轨空间，MA5—MA10均线死叉下行压制。当前看空情绪非常浓厚，空军已经是主旋律了，那么操作上保持看空思路。综合来看，今日黄金操作上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1965-1970Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1930-1935Frontline support.

　　crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend

Monday(4month18day)欧洲时段，国际油价自早盘创下的3月末以来高位回落，受到中国数据走弱的利空，但乌克兰危机和利比亚设施停摆继续加深市场对供应紧张的担忧。进一步加剧压力的是，利比亚上周日停止了其El Feel油田的生产。而Zueitina油港的两名消息人士表示，在抗议者要求总理Abdulhamidal-Dbeibah接管这些油田后，石油出口已暂停。El FeelandZueitina两处设施停摆将削弱利比亚石油产出。在最近一次停电之前，利比亚石油产量平均为每天121Ten thousand barrels.El Feel遭遇的不可抗力将使这个北非国家的石油日产量减少了70000桶。俄乌谈判陷入僵局，俄罗斯原油出口受阻，OPEC不愿意增产支持油价，但疫情的担忧和能源储备的释放施压油价。油价仍处在震荡区间。在潜在下行风险方面，一方面，需关注以美国为主的IEA成员国原油抛储利空还在发酵，美欧库存有边际回升的可能。另一方面，随着美联储面对高通胀压力就加息、缩表给出了更为激进的表态，美元指数向上突破100大关，对油价的压制依旧较强。

　　原油从技术面来看，日线级别震荡上涨；均线多头排列，MACD初步金叉，KDJ金叉，油价短线偏向多头，目前正试探3month30Daily high point108.75附近阻力，如果顶破该阻力，则有望进一步试探3month24Daily high point116.64Nearby resistance. In the short term,3month28Daily high point112.93附近也存在一些阻力。鉴于复活节交投可能受到限制，在阻力位附近也可能会有一些多头获利了结，需要提防短线回调的可能性；初步支撑在4month5Daily high point105.59Nearby, then21Daily moving average104.23Nearby support.5The daily moving average is supported by102.79附近，如果回落至该位置下方，则削弱短线看涨信号。油价维持震荡，但当前价格仍然运行在长期均线上方，主要技术指标都偏向多头。投资者以逢低吸纳为主。综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南金师建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注109.8-110Resistance, short-term focus below103.5-104Frontline support

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