Guo Shengshan:4.20黄金震荡偏空，日内看反弹

When your talent cannot support your ambition, you need to calm down and learn. When your ability cannot control your goals, you should settle down and experience. Only through learning, trading, and summarizing, can you understand that you are truly not rejected by the market, just unwilling to change in the past. There are two types of investment: physiological investment, which is to solve food and clothing problems, and spiritual investment, which belongs to spiritual investment, It is about realizing the value of life, playing games and races against human greed and fear.

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday（4month20日）亚洲时段，现货黄金徘徊在1946附近；金价周二大跌，现货黄金一度重挫1.75%, refresh4month11Since the low point of the day1943.82dollar/盎司，美元走强和美债收益率攀升，盖过了避险资金流入黄金的影响。美元指数触及逾两年高位，令黄金对海外买家来说更加昂贵，美债收益率上升，市场预期美联储将收紧货币政策。美国圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周一重申，他主张在年底前将利率上调至3.5%，以控制通胀。分析师表示，美联储官员的鹰派发言推高美国名义和实际利率，令黄金承压。黄金是众所周知的通胀对冲工具，今年迄今已上涨6.5%。本周早些时候，金价一度突破每盎司2000美元的水平，自1月份以来上涨了约9%。不过，近期高通胀和地缘政治风险可能仍将支撑流入黄金产品的资金，并可能在未来几周让金价保持在当前水平附近。市场分析师称，地缘政治风险和全球增长风险增大可能引发避险情绪，促使投资者涌向黄金的避风港。但美元升值、美债收益率上升以及对美联储加息的预期可能会在未来使金价面临多重阻力。

　　黄金从技术面来看，黄金昨日承压重挫收低，最高反弹1982附近承压，欧美盘时段由于美元强势，黄金受挫，击穿1960打破了近期的震荡上升防守点，最低跌至1943dollar|盎司。日线收成大阴线，回吐近三个交易日的涨幅，从日线的结构来看，此前的反弹是小碎阳慢性上涨，上涨慢下跌快的走法。也显示出短期摸高动能不足，月线可能只是回补上影线而并非强势收复，随着日线的收低回落，阴吞阳，日内短线走弱。4小时一波连阴极弱的单边下挫放量，从1998形成首个顶部，二次反抽1982再次承压，形成了一波连阴式的放量，击穿1960后的多空转换，今日阻力点在1960.此位是强弱分界点，破位后的顶底转换。均线指标目前还是向上发散，亚欧盘预计还需要时间震荡修正，拉动指标拐头向下再进一步延续下行。1小时图布林道中轨压力下移至1963.以及昨晚尾盘的反抽高点1967形成共振压制。目前K线形态较弱，可能亚盘会惯性走出新低，但持续性是一个问题，毕竟昨日下挫后还来不及修正，均线指标未完全拐头。早盘可能先惯性摔跌，摔出新低后再进行反弹修正，在反弹中择机高空看延续。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上郭晟衫建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1958-1963Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1930-1925Frontline support.

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　　隔夜油价大幅走低，因此前国际货币基金组织(IMF)下调经济增长预期并就通胀上升发出警告，引发了需求担忧。目前地缘冲突仍在持续，同时原油产量也出现一定的下滑，整体对油价仍具有较强的支撑作用。技术面小时图MACDGolden fork,CCI运行在低位附近。不过四小时MACD死叉放量，CCI处於超卖区间内运行。所以日内可能还会再次下探，不过由於地缘局势的持续，油价跌幅将受限，届时油价一旦企稳将再次出现一波强劲的多头走势。

Operation suggestions:104.8——105.2Short on the front line, stop loss50Point, stop and see100——98Near.

　　下方则在97——97.5一线抄底做多，止损50Point, stop and see100——103；后市进一步看110——120Near.

——This article is submitted by Guo Shengshan.

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