ATFXCompared to three months ago, natural gas futures prices have doubled

Message surface:3month23Japan and Russia have already stated that natural gas exports from unfriendly countries can only be settled in rubles. On that day, natural gas in the United StatesfuturesThe closing price is reported on5.092dollar/British thermal unit. After some discussions, NATO member countries led by the United States have decided not to accept the Russian ruble settlement for natural gas. The alternative solution is for EU countries to import natural gas from the United States.4month1On the same day, Russian President Putin reiterated that if European countries do not settle in rubles, Russia will cut off gas supply. As of today, the latest quotation for natural gas in the United States6.681dollar/British thermal unit, compared to last month23The daily cumulative increase has reached31.2% . If we start from this year1The low point of the month3.638In terms of US dollars, natural gas prices in the United States have accumulated an increase over a period of three months83.64%If calculated based on the highest price of this month, it is close to doubling.

The Director of the Federal Network Administration, the German energy regulatory agency, Muller, stated that relying solely on existing natural gas reserves and recent purchases of liquefied natural gas, Germany can only maintain energy supply until late summer and early autumn, and then our natural gas reserves will be completely depleted. This is not the situation we hope to see before the next winter begins. Not only Germany, but also other European countries are basically facing the same predicament. According to S&P data, France3Imported from the United States on a monthly basis16Ship liquefied natural gas, with relatively high import volume2Twice the monthly increase, surpassing imports15Spain and imports of ships12The UK, which owns ships, became the country with the highest global purchase of liquefied natural gas from the United States that month. It is precisely because of the liquefied natural gas exported by this ship that the natural gas futures prices in the United States can achieve a significant increase.

Natural gas technology:3Since mid month, natural gas has maintained a smooth upward trend. As of now, the upward trend has not encountered significant resistance, and there is a high probability of continuing the upward trend in the future. Yesterday's intraday high hit6.947This price level is the highest in nearly a decade. In addition to the EU's refusal to pay for natural gas imports from Russia in rubles, the vicious inflation problem caused by currency oversupply in the United States is also an important factor driving up natural gas prices. From all angles, there is no possibility that the US natural gas price will continue to decline unless the Russia-Ukraine conflict is significantly cooled, but this possibility is extremely low.

Natural gas trend chart:


Summary
ATFXThe analyst team believes that:crude oilThere is a linkage with natural gas prices. Oil prices vary2Mid month to3During the mid month period, there was a rapid increase, while natural gas prices continued to fluctuate during the same period. Nowadays, after crude oil enters a volatile state, natural gas prices have started to soar and surge. So, we need to remember that the resonance between natural gas and crude oil has not changed, it is no longer the same resonance at the same time, but there is a first and then.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.