Guo Shengshan:4.12黄金暴涨欧盘会跌吗？原油最新策略

Trading core values: Trading is like fighting, both attacking and defending. Defensive means advancing with retreat, while offensive means retreating with advance. When risks outweigh profits, a perfect retreat is far more meaningful than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only calm down can observe, only observe can be a judge, and thus distinguish between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands against the strong or weak team, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. It is not necessary to participate every time, but to seek a trade that can turn the tide with just one attempt. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else. It's just the strong. Even if they fall, they should smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the lights when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have just experienced more setbacks.

　　goldTechnical analysis

　　上一交易日(4month11day)美市早盘，黄金走势一度强势上涨，逼近1970美元关口，较日低拉升30美元，但由于短期futures交易商获利了结，以及债券收益率上升和crude oil市场下跌，很快自高位大幅回落至1945美元一线，日线仍录得四连阳。

　　现货金昨日先扬后抑伴随剧烈拉锯，亚盘在1939一线启稳整理，欧美盘先行放量冲高至1969.70dollar/盎司，而后黄金行情快速承压回落至1940，几乎回吐日内涨幅，回归亚盘低点处再启稳，尾盘时段收盘在1950上方，日线收盘带有较长上影线的小阳K线。日线连续四个交易日放量上涨收阳，不过昨日伴随了冲高回落上影线，使得短期黄金多空延续仍存悬念。多空争夺的关键时期，黄金是二次摸高确认顶部还是启稳重新回归中期升势，仍有待确认。下方颈线1890依旧是关键点，目前处于摸高当中，也是月线回补上影线的阶段，中期趋势仍要时间观察，暂时以短线为主。

　　4小时一波放量上涨之后，K线伴随着冲高收低，昨日的区间1970-1938是短期的分水点，上下区间边缘来决定短线多空延续，上破1970进一步反弹摸高，反之下破1938.则短线提前完成摸高转弱回落，而消息面的不确定性，也将加剧短线震荡频率。

　　黄金操作上，1943附多，止损1938， 目标参考1948-1960。

Gold rebound1965Empty, stop loss1972, look at the goal1945

Analysis of the trend of crude oil market;

　　4month11日美油期货下跌4%Settlement price report94.29dollar/桶；盘中一度大跌5.42%to92.93USD, creating2month25日以来新低，几乎回吐俄乌战争以来涨幅；市场担忧新冠疫情将削减亚洲消费大国的需求，且国际能源署(IEA)国家计划释放创纪录数量的战略油储将弥补俄罗斯每日100万桶的石油供应缺口，使得油价承压，今天（周二）将公布欧佩克月度原油市场报告和EIA短期能源展望报告，这是俄乌冲突爆发以来，专业机构首次对该月原油供需动态发表评论。目前普遍的共识似乎是，俄罗斯的石油产量将减少大约100-20010000 barrels/日。因新冠疫情全球最大的石油进口国的燃料消费已经停滞，可能会使该国的石油总消费量减少多达13010000 barrels/日。早前欧盟与石油输出国组织(OPEC)举行会谈，欧盟告诉欧佩克，欧佩克可以利用其闲置产能提供更多石油产量。欧盟在欧佩克会议期间再次呼吁产油国考虑增加产量。欧盟方面还指出，欧佩克有责任确保石油市场的平衡。有消息称，欧盟执委会正在起草对俄罗斯石油禁运的提案，尽管还没有就禁止俄罗斯石油达成协议，此举可能导致全球石油供应紧张。

Crude oil opened yesterday at98.80下方弱势整理，开盘即是日内高点，在上周五的高点之下弱势震荡后，下行破低，打破了此前的颈线低点，不过首次破位没能直接收在低位，而是伴随了下探回升收回低点之上。日线收盘小阴K线。局部仍在拉动指标拐头蓄势。目前从日线结构来看，在酝酿着C浪延续，昨日虚破93.30-93.50低点，但未收低，今明两日还要继续争夺低点。来决定短期强弱延续。4小时暂时处于下行台阶通道中运行，但短线表现是震荡式下跌，而不是极弱的单边下跌，昨日单阴下挫放量后，再伴随小连阳反弹收复部分失地，也是一步一回头的走法。这种行情中，节奏比方向更重要。卡点是关键。先锁住临界点，再择切入点。目前4Hours and1小时图双均线形成空头压制，虽伴随反弹修正，但双均线不拐头，以及台阶高点不收复，综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路郭晟衫建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注98.0-99.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below93.0-92.0Frontline support.

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.