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goldMarket analysis:
Spot gold last Friday(4month8日)亚市盘初开盘小幅下挫,触及日内低位1926.80dollar/盎司后展开回升上涨;直至美盘,投资者在权衡美国大幅升息的预期,以及对高通胀和乌克兰危机经济影响的担忧,黄金扩大涨幅,刷新日内高位1948.11dollar/盎司,截止收盘,黄金自日内高位小幅回落后回升,收于1945.80dollar/ounce.
黄金技术面来分析,日线上,上周五黄金在早盘的小幅下跌后企稳上涨,有效站住MA5and10日均线支撑,并刺破中轨位置,录得中阳,日线上,由于行情企稳,预计短期仍有上幅;4小时上,上周五黄金在早盘经过中上轨徘徊后走震荡上行走势上行,盘中不断刺破上轨,当前布林带处于开口期,MAThe moving average moves out of the double golden cross, and the three lines move upwards,KDJ随机指标三线并拢向下,到达超买,MACD指标红色动能柱持续放量,快慢线金叉向上,综合来看,黄金目前尽管收阳,但前高依旧没有打破,预计短期或小幅下跌后再次上涨,日内操作建议高空低多,上方关注1950-1955One line of resistance, pay attention below1930-1935一线支撑,然后同时关注上下突破情况在进行择机调整,若打开上行,则再抬高支撑进行做多。
crude oilMarket trend analysis:
Analysis of crude oil news: Monday(4month11日)亚洲时段,美油小幅下跌现报95.55dollar/桶;油价上周连续第二周下跌,因各国宣布计划释放战略油储,疫情蔓延,不确定性风险增加;几周以来,原油一直处于2020year6月以来的最不稳定状态。伊拉克国家通讯社上周五援引石油部的话称,OPEC+对产量目标的承诺有助于吸收市场上的过剩供应。石油服务公司贝克休(Baker Hughes)的数据显示,截至4month8日当周,美国生产商增加了13个活跃钻机,为连续第三周增加。油市进一步的压力来自美元走强,此前有信号显示,美联储可能在年底前将联邦基金利率再提高三个百分点。此外,疫情快速蔓延,需求的不确定性限制了价格。
原油技术面分析:原油从日线上来看,原油上周收缩整理,周线收盘小阴十字K线,整体空间走得不大。日线连续的星K线整理,在低位测试颈线支撑,但始终仍未破位,本周仍要留意颈线处的争夺。颈线93.30是多空关键,失守则进行C浪下跌延续。目前还处于争夺的阶段。日K线目前稍有钝化等待打破。对俄乌局势导致供应短缺的担忧,美国与其他一些国家相继释放战略原油储备,导致油价承压。
4小时图短线处于下行台阶当中,逼近了前低点颈线的争夺,短线下行进入停顿蓄势阶段,单从4小时结构来看,还处于震荡式台阶下行当中,但只有下破93.50才能完全打开空间,上周在接近低点后局部进入震荡拉锯。本周依旧重点关注颈线得失,同时目前下行通道趋势线未突破,短线仍以反弹择机高空为主,或下破93.50加速打开空间再顺势跟进。日内短线阻力98.80-99.0.下行趋势线阻力100.30.综上所述总结:原油在经过连续下跌后,终于在上周周五出现了削弱迹象,本周重点关注油价上涨连续性,进一步打开上行空间,下方坚守在93.5The US dollar, which is the long short divide for bullish crude oil, is expected to continue a wave of upward trend if it does not break below this level. The upward target is focused on99.8Break situation, then102.0美元加速水平,今日原油操作上指南金师建议回撤布局多单为主,回撤支撑关注93.8-94.0美元一线。具体操作策略我会在盘中提示,及时关注。近期市场动荡幅度较大,机会与风险并存。控制风险再博收益。
原油操作策略参考:
Empty order strategy:
Above the rebound of crude oil98.8-99.0Short selling in batches nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target97.5-95.5Nearby; Dislocation93.8Near.
Multi order strategy:
Below the crude oil correction93.8.0-94.0Nearby batch long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.5USD, target97.0-99.0Nearby; Dislocation100.0Near.
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