Guide Metallographer:4.5俄乌冲突恶化避险黄金原油今日走势操作建议

　　没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作。早间gold走势分析，今日黄金是涨是跌？许多投资者这样问我。我只是想还你一个来到这个市场的初衷，满怀信心而来，必要满载而归。关注指南金师 可实时获得最新的操作策略。

Message interpretation:

Monday(4month4day)，国际金价小幅走强，尽管在美国强劲的就业数据提高了对积极加息的预期后，美元维持反弹，限制了金价涨势。预计美联储将提高“终端”利率至“中性”水平上方。但乌克兰危机和对俄罗斯实施更多制裁的讨论仍支撑金价。

　　虽然东欧的冲突可能在下跌时为金价提供适度支撑，但现在非常清楚的是，黄金的主要定价输入已经转向美国收益率上升和美元走高的影响。”美国就业数据显示，失业率降至3.6%的两年新低，工资重新加速增长，使得美联储可能在5月大幅加息50个基点。投资者期待着美联储在周三(4month6day)Published3月会议纪要，以从中寻找升息线索。随着通胀年率升至近8%of40年高位，交易员预计美联储将提高“终端”利率——即利率开始重新走低之前的预期峰值——至“中性”水平上方，确保经济既不会过热也不会过冷。

Analysis of Gold Technology:

　　黄金周一经过日内的下探后的震荡反弹，目前短线结构重心得到抬升，但是上方压制依旧还是很明显的，短线上方着重关注1933-35Pressure, if broken, temporarily provide a buffer zone, view from above1940为短线的最终防守位。下方则先关注1925The nearby competition, if it falls back below it, not only indicates that the rebound pressure measurement process within the day is effective, but also further confirms the bearish state of the market again. The main support below is still focused on the previous low point1917-15一带争夺，但行情再度回撤至此，则不再考虑短多。

　　预期跌破此位的概率还是比较大的，下方或可关注1910、1905-00区域支撑测试。短线操作上指南金师官微：zj61518建议主思路依旧持反弹测压看再调整的预期，反弹在1933-35附近短空，至1938附近轻仓补空，统一手动止损1940Above, look down at the target1927-25First reduce the position, change to break even and stop loss, and then look at the remaining orders1917-15减仓，且可保留部分持单看1910、1905附近回撤再做减离。如已有1930附近空单的，回撤1925附近务必减仓，回撤至下方1920一线全部离场。

Silver Technology Analysis:

　　周一日内白银进行了0.2美金左右的反弹，对于上周五的非农业人口数据来讲白银表现的安然无恙，也只是出现了局部的震荡行情，非农结束后价格产生回落，日内欧盘时段价格展开反弹，结构上与黄金非常的相似，目前也处于调整当中，意味着调整走势大概率会创出24.40的新低，因此短线操作上指南金师建议等待价格反弹至24.85Intervention of frontline air orders and placement of risk control points25.05Above, as seen from the target position24.60-24.50。

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

Monday(4month4day)，国际油价上涨，因为在德国警告将对俄罗斯实施更多制裁以及重启伊朗核协议的谈判暂停后，对供应紧张的担忧持续存在。高盛将2023年的油价预测从每桶110The US dollar has been raised to115USD.

　　原油技术面，周线收报大阴，但价格还在关键上行通道上轨支撑上运行；日线同样如此，守住通道支撑，则不代表行情走弱发展，维持上周原判，认为它处于底部的震荡运行，支撑98-97，一旦企稳则容易震荡反攻，继续维持大区间内宽幅来回运行，而日线级别的大区间阻力在118一线，支撑在97-98；从小时线级别看，早盘低开运行，还是无法破位98，当前突破中轨向上运行，建议和金银一样，展开震荡反弹运行对待，回踩留意99.4上逢低跟多测试，看101.5-102阻力，破位则看104-105； if98-97守不住，再关注试探94-93的力度如何来做下一步判断

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