Chen Zeqiang 4.4黄金区间震荡徘徊，最新黄金原油行情走势分析...

The market always engages in a game of long and short positions, with strong upward movements and rapid downward movements. You cannot control the direction of the market, and the only thing we can do is to hold onto the principal. When the market is uncertain, we can take our positions out of the market and watch. There is no need to waste our energy on unclear behavior. Is the market up or down? The most important thing to worry about is what kind of countermeasures you will take to respond to market changes, how much profit you can gain when you are right, and how much you can avoid when you are wrong in real time.

Investment itself has no risks,Only out of control investments have risks

　　国际新闻面解读

Monday（4month4At the beginning of the Asian market, in stockgoldNarrow volatility, currently trading at1925美元附近，美国就业数据相对强劲，强化了美联储5Month and6月均加息50个基点的预期，美元相对强势，而且俄乌会谈继续，打压避险，调查显示，尽管散户仍偏向看涨后市，但多数华尔街分析师已经转为看空黄金后市。分析师表示，“对加息的预期正在压低金价，因为这将导致持有非孽息黄金的机会成本上升。(Federal Reserve)政策到中性水准都还有很长的路要走…黄金将继续保持相当坚挺。”物价大幅上涨一般会增加黄金的吸引力，因为黄金普遍被认为可以很好的抵御通货膨胀。市场分析师表示，市场将密切关注美联储本周公布的3月货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要中出现的任何鹰派倾向都可能对金价构成压力。预计金价将试探1900美元左右的支撑位。分析师说，他看空黄金，因其避险溢价被冲出市场。不过，他补充说，这种下降应该是有限的。“黄金与战前趋势相差不远。一旦市场将注意力集中在美联储和欧洲央行的不可能的选择之上，那么金价将恢复上涨趋势”。日内关注美国2月工厂订单月率和俄乌局势进一步消息，留意市场对本周将公布的美联储会议纪要的预期情况。

　　黄金技术面走势分析

　　目前俄乌停火谈判可能取得进展，黄金避险情绪骤降，承压1966高位大幅回落至1890低位，最终深V反转重回1900大关之上。近期两次下探都未能有效跌破1900关口，代表下方还是具有大量买盘支撑。随后一直维持在1918—1940区间反复震荡，最高也是冲击1950关口后再次跌回。美国非农数据对黄金影响也是相对有限，最高也就是冲击1933后就受阻回落，也并未打破震荡区间。现在避险情绪有所冲淡，黄金下周有望打破平衡，空军跌破1918将会出现单边下行，再次测试1900Da Guan.

　　从日线来看，近期黄金一直处于布林中下轨区间进行反复震荡走势，上有1966大阴回落，下有1900启明星，多空争夺难分胜负。月线以流星线收官，上方带有长长上引线，代表高位有大量空头压制，且布林三轨呈现缩口运行迹象，预期4月黄金行情会出现走低。从当前走势来看，黄金处于1918—1940区间反复震荡，1小时有希望构成头肩顶形态，左肩在1940位置，头位在1950关口，右肩有望再回1940附近，加之1966—1950短期下行趋势保持完好，那么操作上我们以空为主。毕竟避险情绪渐淡，月线又有望延续跌势那么，继续先看1918—1940High selling and low slag in the interval.

　　4.4Golden Operation Strategy:

　　1--1918Nearby, stop loss1913, Objective1926-1930

　　2--1933Near empty, stop loss1938, Objective1926-1921

　　crude oilRelated information:

　　昨夜今晨，国际能源署(IEA)召开紧急会议后宣布，在美国能源部长格兰霍姆的牵头主持下，31个成员国达成了再次抛售战略石油储备的决议，但并未明确给出各方更关心的抛储数量。国际油价本周延续弱势。WTIandBrentcrude oilfutures价格累计周跌幅均超10%，其中，WTI 5月原油期货本周累跌超12%, creating2011The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the year.3月份，全球三大机构月报纷纷下调对于全球石油需求的增速预期，EIA下调今年全球原油需求增速预期从35410000 barrels/Solstice31310000 barrels/日。当前原油市场供应仍存在不稳定性，全球原油库存也处于多年低位，因此油价仍将维持高位宽幅振荡的格局。

　　国际原油（WTI）

　　上个交易日原油开盘反弹101.5Nearby, exploring the descent97.7Nearby, explore on the rebound101.4附近，在回落下探收盘99.3附近，日线震荡；MACDDead fork operation,KDJDead fork operation,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线，过去三个交易日21日均线对油价压制明显，暗示多头反弹受阻，短线油价延续周一的跌势，初步阻力在55Daily moving average101附近，如果失守该支撑93.5美元，则油价中线可能会进一步跌向100Daily moving average86.94Near.

　　从四小时图观察，油价自此前反弹116.80承压以来，此位作为大周期的B浪反弹高点。目前的回落当作是C浪的下行调整。下方破掉93.3才能形成有效的浪形向下，当然目前处于构造当中，后市若不收复116.80高点，此处则作为c浪的启动点。结构构造ABC的三浪下跌调整。综上所述陈泽强总结：原油整体维持在一个震荡走弱格局中，今日操作上考虑反弹做空为主，上方关注100.9-102.6USD resistance, follow below93.5-90.7dollar/Bucket support.

　　今日操作建议：反弹在100.9-101.4遇阻空一次，目标看98.5-93.5，破位下看，损0.5dollar

Analysis of silver trend:

Current pressure26.8After a continuous decline, stabilization, and rebound in the region, the current rebound is still relatively strong, but26.8The upward pressure is obvious and cannot be adjusted at any time. There is a bit of room for the decline in demand for silver industry in the later stage. When gold stabilizes, it is still the first to long silver. Currently, with the tariff adjustment, we can also rebound and participate in short selling. If we continue to rebound25.Nearby, there can be empty layouts waiting for adjustments, as for silverTDJust follow the trend of spot buying and selling, of course, the pressure is concentrated now5150If encountering a direct short entry game and adjusting again, try not to participate in other positions as much as possible, and now switch between top and bottom5150Regional pressure continues to short5250Loss is sufficient. Directly encountering4800Multiple regional batches, available in stock22Try a shorter layout nearby.

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