Liu Yuming:3.21黄金原油今日行情走势分析及晚间欧美盘操作...

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　　goldLatest market analysis:

　　黄金消息面解析：上周五（3month18日），国际金价下跌，随着战争进入第四周，俄罗斯军队在乌克兰城市的推进似乎停滞，俄乌战争引发的避险需求减弱。不过，OECD对通胀发出新的警告，金价后市继续看涨。市场分析师说：“乌克兰局势不像之前那么紧张了，所以焦虑感并没有真正推动黄金作为避险工具而上涨。”英国央行本周再次加息，以阻止快速上升的通胀变得根深蒂固，但在家庭面临能源费用大涨的巨大打击之际，该央行在进一步加息的必要性上软化了措辞。美联储周三（3month16日）如期加息25个基点以抗击飞涨的物价，这是美联储近三年来的首次加息。美国通胀率已处于40年高位，而且可能还会被欧洲战事进一步推升。德国三大经济预测机构表示，随着乌克兰战争的冲击波减弱了新冠疫情限制放松和供应瓶颈缓解带来的促进作用，德国2022年的经济增长将低于之前的预期。OECD在分析俄乌战争的经济后果时估计，由于欧洲强烈依赖俄罗斯的能源进口，战争对欧元区经济的负面影响可能高达1.4个百分点，而对美国的影响约为0.9Percentage points.

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金方面，近期走势简单梳理一下，俄乌正式爆发之后强势拉出高点2070美元，距离历史高点2074一步之遥，然后开始回落，在双方有意和谈的预期之下大幅回落，然后上周在美联储加息利空落地之后急跌测试1895一线，然后利空全部落地之后如期走出二次拉高，基本也是符合我们的预期，只是距离我们看好的反弹位置1960差了10个点就开始再度回落，美盘加速回落最低1918一线，上方压力位逐步下移到了1940附近，下方关注分水岭1890-1900美元这个位置，有效跌破看加速下行，中期回落的格局基本已经确立，短期就看新一轮的信号出现就好。

Golden DayK随机指标死叉向下，钝化死叉向下，本次行情就是要去破1900的支撑位置，日K因此在下周来看，偏向相下跌向下持续运行，因此，建议上选择日K级别继续选择高空思路处理；4小时暂时是在区间之中有所支撑，短线上看还是小区间，但是整体的结构，向台上看，这个1900不是低点位置，指标死叉向下，继续向下运行的概率很大。此外，再去看6Hour,8小时都是偏空向下运行；因此，从这个4小时，日K的走势来看，指标共振死叉，形态上，结构上也偏空向下运行。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上刘煜铭建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1935-1940Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1905-1900Frontline support.
　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Last Friday（3month18日），国际油价持坚，延续隔夜逾8%The rebound momentum and the slow progress of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have raised concerns in the market about stricter sanctions and long-term disruptions in oil supply. Despite facing setbacks on the battlefield and punitive sanctions from the West, Russian President Putin has shown little sign of concessions. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators held the the fourth day of talks via video, but the Kremlin said that no agreement had been reached. Analysts warn that a decrease in Russian oil exports may persist, leading to further imbalances in supply and demand. She also said: "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to visit the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia later this month, and the oil issue may be at the top of the agenda." Market analysts said that the increased volatility has scared away many oil market participants, and the resulting reduced liquidity may further exacerbate price volatility in turn. The strategist said, "Extreme volatility will continue. Trading volume is not particularly high, so in markets with relatively low liquidity, the market's response to new hotspots will be intense

　　原油技术面分析：原油上周五强势低位反弹收高，守住前一日低点上方整理，欧盘走强，短线图走出一波强势连阳上升收复失地，且回撤空间较小。日线最终收盘中阳线，形成启明星止跌。单从日线来看，短线止跌回升今日还有延续。4Hours from94.23After stabilizing at a low point, we emerged from a strong consecutive positive trend and recovered99.20A small level of reverse recovery is formed after the resistance point.4Hour walking is relatively strong, and there is no YinK线回撤。这使得短线切入点不好寻找，毕竟是由空转多的反弹，而非单边多头，一波三折的回撤才能有力度，而昨日直接单向上涨，使得今日加大了震荡拉锯的频率。短线震荡向上，但会伴随冲高回踩的走法，修正昨日的上涨空间。同时也是作为周线震荡收尾。综合来看：原油今日操作思路上刘煜铭建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注107.5-108.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below101.8-101.3Frontline support.

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