ATFX：USDCHFThe Swiss franc underperformed most non US currencies with four consecutive positive periods

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the most reliable valuation currencies: as mentioned in an analysis article a month ago, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the most stable valuation currencies because Switzerland and Japan do not have high inflation problems like the United States, the United Kingdom, or Germany, and can continue loose monetary policy. In addition, Switzerland is a permanently neutral country with abundant trade surplus; Japan is a long-term low interest rate country, andCPIHaving been hovering around zero, these factors work together to create the special status of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as "safe haven currencies". We often hear news about the United States, the US dollar, the Federal Reserve, such as presidential elections, seigniorage, interest rate hikes, and so on. The more such news, the more unstable the macroeconomic environment in the country, and correspondingly, the currency value of the country will fluctuate violently. Countries such as the United Kingdom, the eurozone, Canada, Australia, and others, like the United States, have their macroeconomic conditions that are sometimes overheated and sometimes too cold, without a consistent and constant state. The ability of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to become reliable valuation currencies is closely related to the "stable and orderly" and "long-term stability" of the domestic macroeconomics of Japan and Switzerland. Recently, I often hear people say that the yuan is also becoming more and more safe haven becauseUSDCNHIt is continuing to decline. In fact, in addition to the performance of the exchange rate, China's stable macroeconomic environment, peaceful foreign policy, and huge trade surplus are all key factors that contribute to the safe haven nature of the RMB.

USDCHFFour consecutive suns: The Federal Reserve Tomorrow2:00Announce the results of interest rate resolutions and raise interest rates25bpsIt's already a nail in the nail. Raising interest rates represents tightening, and tightening monetary policy can lead to the appreciation of the US dollar. However, we observed the US dollar index and found that it did not show a sharp upward trend, but instead100Stagnation at integer level.EURUSDstay3month7Daily low point reached1.0806Afterwards, it never fell below again. Why is that? The reason is simple, as the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates25At the same time as the basis point, the market is also expecting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates for the first time within the year. Two currency pairs, one raising interest rates and the other also raising interest rates, ultimately resulting in the exchange rate remaining unchanged. So, in order to capture the appreciation of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, it is necessary to choose a national currency with no expectation of interest rate hikes. The Swiss franc is one of the options, followed by the Japanese yen.USDCHFIn the past four consecutive trading days, it has risen continuously, reaching its highest point0.9432The US dollar has shown significant appreciation momentum against the Swiss franc. The highlight of today's event is the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in the evening, and when the final results are announced,USDCHFFurther upward trend is expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference also needs to be closely monitored. If he reveals a tendency to raise interest rates fasterUSDCHFThe upward trend will be more sustainable. The risk point is that after the expectation of interest rate hikes is excessively overdrawn, there will be a market where profits outweigh losses. After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolutionUSDCHFTurn around and fall. Of course, the probability of this situation occurring is not high.

goldTrend: Although the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are special safe haven currencies, they are ultimately paper currencies, and as long as the central bank adjusts monetary policy, they can change their supply. What is more stable than currency valuation is the valuation of precious metals, and the top of precious metals is gold, and the stock of gold will not change significantly. In the past three trading days, the price of gold has increased from1998fall to1906The trend characteristics are similar to those of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. So, we believe thatUSDCHF、USDJPYThere is a high probability of an increase (representing an appreciation of the US dollar) after tonight's announcement of the Federal Reserve resolution, and similarly, the probability of a decrease in gold prices (representing an appreciation of the US dollar) is also very high.

Market trend analysis:


Summary
ATFXThe analyst team believes that as the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters into a stalemate, global risk aversion will cool, and the safe haven currencies, the Swiss franc, the yen and gold, will continue to depreciate against the dollar.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.