ATFX: Gold's uptrend paused, while crude oil remained strong

Market trend: Russia-Ukraine conflictgoldThe impact of prices is mainly concentrated in2month24Japan (outbreak of war) and3month1During the Japanese (nuclear readiness) period, gold closed with a negative line at other times.crude oilDifferent, after passing through2month24day~28After the shock of the day, since3month1Starting from the beginning of the day, oil prices have skyrocketed, reaching their highest point112dollar/Barrel, making it the most suitable variety for trading during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As early as2month24We mentioned in the Japanese article that "after the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended, the gold probability rate started a deep correction, because the Federal Reserve's policy of interest rate increase did not support the bullion trend of gold. Unlike gold, even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended, the crude oil price will maintain a strong performance, becauseOPEC+The recovery of production increase is still insufficient The current trends of gold and crude oil have precisely verified the original predictions.

The latest progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine: Western countries led by the United States are deepening sanctions against Russia, and European and American companies are also joining the sanctions force. On the other hand, after the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine began, Russia's offensive came to a standstill. Today, there will be a second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and the final outcome of the negotiations is still unknown, but there is a high probability that a substantive agreement will not be reached. The mainstream view in the market is that Ukraine has no sincerity in negotiations, but instead uses negotiations to delay time in order to obtain NATO military aid and Western sanctions against Russia. However, since Russia and Ukraine have already sat down to negotiate, the situation is moving in a positive direction, and the market's risk aversion will also cool down, making it difficult for gold prices to maintain high levels.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: In his report to members of the House of Representatives, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned his support for3Monthly interest rate increase25Basis points. This statement caused the US dollar index to hit a new high yesterday97.64The stage reached a new high. The relationship between gold and the US dollar is a seesaw, and a stronger US dollar will suppress the rise of gold. So, we maintained last month24The Russia-Ukraine conflict will cool down or end, and gold will return to the downward trend. Of course, before the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold may still rise, but the increase is relatively limited due to the performance of the dollar index.

OPEC+The latest ministerial statement:4Monthly production will continue to increase daily as planned40Ten thousand barrels. This indicates that the Middle East region maintains a "laissez faire" attitude towards the current high oil prices and does not intend to increase production to prevent the rise of crude oil. Western countries imposing economic and financial sanctions on Russia cannot shake its lifeline as long as it does not involve oil and gas exports. To some extent, the high oil prices have greatly weakened the impact of economic sanctions on Russia. According to the United StatesEIACrude oil inventory data, latest inventory values2280.6Ten thousand barrels, in a significant downward trend. Judging from this, the rise in crude oil will continue for a long time.

Risk reminder: Substantial progress in the Russo Ukrainian negotiations, Ukraine gaining initiative on the battlefield, and Russia's inability to withstand economic sanctions and ceasing attacks can all lead to deviations in the above analysis.

Market trend analysis:


Summary
ATFXThe analyst team believes that the rise in crude oil far exceeds that of gold, and the trading layout is suggested to be more biased towards the former.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.