Xiao Yizhou;3.3黄金原油回调修正并非反转，分析及操作

Thursday(3month3day)亚洲时段，国际金价涨势受限宽幅震荡，现货goldTrading in1928dollar/盎司附近；由于鲍威尔支持3月上调25个百分点，金价从1947美元回落。因美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储仍致力于通过升息来对抗通胀，这提振了风险人气。美联储方面，美联储主席鲍威尔仍预计会加息，但指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰的战争给前景注入了不确定性。在为本周在国会参众两院委员会的两次听证会准备的讲话中，鲍威尔承认俄罗斯入侵乌克兰正在造成“巨大的困难”。鲍威尔表示，美联储将在未来几个月灵活地提高利率，升息的可能路径是增加0.25个百分点。不过他表示，如果通胀恶化，他可能会采取更激进的举措。但俄罗斯和乌克兰的风险仍不确定，3month4日美国将公布2月份非农数据，投资者都需要密切保持关注。

一个令人担忧的问题是，由俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发的能源价格上涨将如何影响未来的通胀，而这对黄金价格也有影响。眼下局势俄乌开启新的一轮谈判，对于黄金的多头冲高可能会形成一定的打压，投资者未来需关注乌克兰局势的发展。若局势恶化，金价将再次受到提振。从今日开始，消息面陆续登场，20:30 Announced by the European Central Bank2Minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting.23:00 美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述。凌晨01:00 2024yearFOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就美国经济发表讲话 。以及明天周五还有非农数据报告是本周重中之重。

3.3Analysis of gold market trend:

黄金技术面分析：黄金日线级别来看，黄金昨日探高回落收低，日线收盘一根中阴K线，高开上探1950一线承压。欧美盘时段回测至1913.50低位再启稳陷入高位震荡收盘，最终收盘在1930dollar|盎司附近。俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。黄金短暂回落。日线回踩后暂时还是守住了关键支撑，尾盘仍守稳在1922此前突破之上收盘，今日短线仍会争夺，日线结构短线可能在消息面之前陷入收缩震荡。

4小时昨日从上轨承压摔回中轨，短线暂时守住在中轨附近，结合这波上涨浪形，临界点在1877.目前虽然波动基数大，但离临界点已经甩开一定距离，短线而言，暂时维持在1877上方看多思路不变，布林道开始收口，在消息面临近之前，技术结构上也开始陷入收缩震荡。短线可能会在区间内来回拉锯，先要确定日内的震荡区间。再择机卡点操作，震荡为前，趋势为后，卡点是关键。波动基数大，短线机会多，灵活应对。综上所述，今日黄金操作上萧毅舟建议短线建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1930-1935Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1905-1907Frontline support. I will prompt you on the specific operation strategy in the disk and pay attention to it in a timely manner. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase profits.

3.3Reference for Golden Aftermarket Operation Strategy:

Empty order strategy:

Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1930-1933Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1920-1914Nearby, break down and take a look1905frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

Multiple order strategy:

Strategy 2: Gold Callback1905-1907Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1920-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1930frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

3.3crude oilMarket trend analysis:

原油消息面解析：周四（3month3日）亚洲时段，美油延续涨势，目前最高触及113.27dollar/桶附近，油价周三延续涨势，美油上涨超4%Touching2011The highest since the beginning of the year112.51dollar/桶，布油触及2014The highest since the beginning of the year115.11dollar/桶，因上周美国原油库存意外下降，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，市场对未来几个月供应短缺存担忧。白宫表示，对制裁俄罗斯石油和天然气的可能性持“非常开放的态度”。分析师称，这可能会推高价格，直到消费者开始对不断上涨的成本望而却步。这也助燃了油价涨势。 俄罗斯将在2022year5月前恢复石油生产，这一观点受到一些分析人士的质疑，他们说，作为遏制产量的一部分，关闭的油井很难恢复。总体来看，乌俄将开启新一轮谈判，但结果还存极高的不确定性风险，美国库存下降，加之俄罗斯原油出口受管制，供给不足担忧进一步加剧，油价或还存上升风险；日内重点聚焦俄乌谈判，局势缓和，油价或回落至110dollar/桶下方，若紧张局势进一步强化，油价短期或有望剑指120dollar/Bucket.

3.2Analysis of crude oil market trend:

原油技术面分析：原油从技术面来看，原油昨日开盘即延续上涨，最高冲击112.50After the first line of pressure, the US market briefly stepped back to105.25The first line started to stabilize, and the lost ground was regained in the late trading session. The final daily line remains positiveKThe line, with the correction of the backpedaling, continued to close higher in the late trading session. The next day, it remained strong. The backpedaling was a correction, and the recovery of the tail reserve remained strong. The bullish outlook for the daily line remains unchanged.

1Hour chart last night105.25A short-term step low point is formed on the front line, and the hourly chart may rely on this step low point to repeatedly push upward. At the same time, due to the large release space of the high point, the short-term will be accompanied by yesterday's surge and step back, and then slowly recover the lost land. Intensify the amplitude of volatility, with a large base of volatility and more short-term opportunities. Blocking the entry point is the key, and relying on short-term opportunities within the day is the first step105.25低点做防守回撤先行短多。美盘再留意探高回踩的二次启稳走法。亚欧盘主要是延续昨日的上涨。综合来看：今日原油操作思路上萧毅舟建议以回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注114.0-114.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below107.3-105.2Frontline support. I will prompt you on the specific operation strategy in the disk and pay attention to it in a timely manner. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase profits.

3.3Reference for crude oil operation strategy:

Empty order strategy:

Above the rebound of crude oil114.0-114.3.0Short selling in batches nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target108.5-107.5Nearby; Dislocation105.5Nearby. (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

Multi order strategy:

Below the crude oil pullback107.0-107.5Nearby batch long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.5USD, target109.0-111.0Nearby; Dislocation112.0Nearby. (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)