Chen Zeqiang:3.2Analysis of the latest trend of gold and crude oil

　　goldMessage analysis: Tuesday（3month1日），现货黄金和美元指数走强，黄金价格大涨，因市场担心西方因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而对其实施的制裁将影响供应，而冲突也推高了黄金的避险价格。美市早盘，现货黄金维持涨势，交投于1932dollar/盎司一线，稍早一度触及1934.83dollar/盎司高点。因俄乌第一轮停火谈判并未取得突破。在俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰后，全球对美元的需求增加。美国及其盟友上周对俄罗斯实施了几轮制裁，可能导致全球经济增长放缓和金融压力增加，美联储收紧政策正面临出人意料的考验。俄罗斯面临着日益加深的孤立和经济动荡，西方国家联合谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，并对其实施一系列制裁，这些制裁的影响波及到世界各地，投资者很难撤离黄金等避险资产。

　　本周基本面上相对重点有三：美国2月小非农和非农报告数据发布，以及美联储主席鲍威尔在参众两院的半年度货币政策证词报告发布。至于美联储经济褐皮书适当看看即可。伴随着俄乌开启谈判进程，事件风险已经开始趋于缓和，市场的反应也逐步趋于理性，可控可预期的前景之下，市场的恐慌潮已经消退了许多，全球也呈现出回暖迹象，排开突发风险事件之外，市场的关注重点将重回美联储加息政策路径指引之上。能源价格继续走高，美国高通胀形势料将继续持续，通胀压力进一步上升预期较高，经济增长前景充满了更大的不确定性，市场此前预期美联储直接加息50个基调的预期落空概率极大，可仔细研究本周鲍威尔在参众两院的半年度货币政策证词报告；至于非农就业报告当然也需要密切关注。

Gold trend analysis:

　　当前黄金还是继续上涨不变，早盘依托昨日1920的支撑继续低多看涨，早盘回落后先多！上方的压力则是昨日反弹的1950高点压力和前期上方1970位置的阻力！而下方的支撑就是1920位置，这是此前盘整的关键支撑位置！

　　黄金依旧是强势的多头上涨走势，早盘回落后继续干多！交易就是如此，唯有顺势而为，才能立于不败之地

　　【crude oilAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends

Wednesday（3month2During the Asian session, oil prices continued to rise, with US oil prices briefly rising by over3%, up to107.55dollar/Bucket, due to morningAPIThe data shows that inventory has decreased, and the scale of crude oil reserves released by the United States in conjunction with multiple countries has disappointed the market, exacerbating concerns about insufficient supply and increasing long positions in crude oil. Market analysts said, 'Releasing oil reserves is worth paying attention to, but as we did last year,...'11As seen by Yue, this is not considered a way to change the rules of the game at all. The political risk premium of a crisis involving one of the world's largest oil producing countries is simply too high. ”Banks including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have raised their oil price forecasts, anticipating a possible supply disruption. consulting firmOilXThe possibility of disruptions in the supply of crude oil and refined oil products from Russia's offshore is increasing, which could push oil prices above a barrel level150The US dollar. Overall, there is no sign of easing geopolitical tensions, and the scale of crude oil reserves released by countries such as the United States has greatly disappointed the marketAPIThe data shows a decrease in inventory, intensifying concerns about supply and increasing long positions, further stimulating the rise in oil prices; eveningEIAIf the data further shows a decrease in inventory, oil prices are expected to soar in the short term110dollar/Bucket; Additionally, within the dayOPEC+Due to the impact of overlapping data in the meeting, oil prices may fluctuate significantly, and trading needs to be cautious.

　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日强势大阳线放量上涨，日线连续十字KAfter accumulating momentum through line consolidation, the high level continued to rise again, and the bullish line broke the recent consolidationKLine deadlock. The daily bullish trend is full, and there will still be further inertia to see bulls hitting new highs in the short term. The news of the United States and major economies jointly releasing emergency oil reserves has not deterred investors' concerns about severe global supply disruptions. Instead, it has exacerbated concerns about energy shortages. The upward trend of crude oil volume is strong.4The hourly chart shows a wave of high levels, explosive volume, and consecutive gains, breaking through100.50After reaching a high point, an acceleration is formed, and the acceleration in the middle of the rise drives a new high. Combined with the daily closing. The almost bald and barefoot display shows that the short-term trend will continue to rise with inertia. And the early opening of the morning session also released a high point in advance. In the short term of the Asian session, there will be a retracement correction first, and the volatility base will increase. It is necessary to find a stable support point based on the form, and pay attention to the first support point102.50.Next is the resistance point that was previously broken through100.50转换成支撑。短线维持回调看多思路不变。综合来看，今日短线操作思路陈泽强建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注109.5-110Resistance, short-term focus below99.8-100Frontline support.

Wen/Chen Zeqiang