Zhou Jinrui12.16Will gold continue to rise? Analysis and Operation Suggestions for Futures Gold and Crude Oil Market

　　goldMarket trend analysis
　　
Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday（12month15Spot gold fell in Japan, USA11monthPPIPlus previousCPIData creation40In recent years, the two major inflation data have remained high, undoubtedly increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's decision to accelerate the reduction of bond purchases and advance interest rate hikes to tighten monetary liquidity, putting pressure on gold to decline. The end of two consecutive rises and falls in gold prices is due to continued risk aversion, which continues to provide support for the safe haven currency, the US dollar. Investors are concerned about the Omicron variant and concerns about the Federal Reserve accelerating interest rate hikes, while also avoiding any targeted bets on gold prices before the Federal Reserve makes important decisions. The current dot matrix chart of the Federal Reserve will be the key to determining the future trends of gold and the US dollar. But the downward trend of the US stock market and the spread of the epidemic are expected to provide some support for gold prices.
　　
Technical side: Gold daily closing positive, closing at1720-1680Underneath the trend support, it is not conducive to the bullish trend in terms of form, but fortunately, the price has not fallen behind temporarily1760The position of key nodes up and down is not yet clear enough to continue the bearish trend of weakness. It depends on today's closing pattern, which is a continuation1889The bearish trend since the suppression of the high point has continued to fluctuate and rebound for correction; From the perspective of technical channels, the price will definitely have to stand up again1780To continue the oscillation and rebound, but to stand firm1792-94Ability to impact1815、1830Suppress bearish positions above, otherwise keep suppressing1780Running below will gradually suppress the risk of weakness in the short term,1760If you cannot hold on, there is a chance of weakening and probing1740First line, this position is1450-1680A key derivative support point below the trend line; In short, the current situation has been somewhat broken, with the first two weeks of slow upward movement.


Gold4At the hourly level, there was an overnight drop that also broke the previous period's record10The circular pattern at the beginning of the month has already suppressed the risk of weakening; At the golden hour line level, there is a longer lower shadow at the bottomKThe line appears to have a stabilizing pattern, but the rebound is not very strong and suppresses it1780-82The position, with a continuous negative and single positive pattern, is not conducive to an upward trend, but it is also not easy to go low. There are two main technical reasons: first,1772-1769Supported by derivative trend channels1766Frontline; Secondly,macdThere is a probability of showing signs of bottoming out and backtracking; Current focus on short-term resistance1781If we can reach the bottom and break through1781Above the morning high, there is hope to continue to shift towards intra range oscillations and impact probing1787-89; On the contrary, breaking through1766If the low point continues, of course, in a downward trend, the key support below will first be viewed as rebound correction. Before the interest rate hike falls next year, it is difficult for short-term bearish positions to change temporarily, or in other words, a true bullish unilateral trend can only be initiated after the interest rate hike falls. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold today. Last week, Jinrui suggested that high altitude should be the main focus, while low altitude should be the secondary focus, with a focus on local areas1790-1795Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1755-1760Frontline support. At present, friends who have nested orders in their positions are unable to provide corresponding unwinding strategies due to the author Zhou Jinrui's lack of knowledge about the location of your nested orders and the specific situation of your positions. Friends who need to unwind can use a single line【zjr8527】Obtain.
　　
Recommendations for Gold Operations
　　
　　①1760-62There are many nearby areas, causing damage1757.target1780-1788Break the position to see1795
　　
　　②1787-89Nearby empty, loss1793.Target View1770-1760-Break the position to see1750
　　
GoldTDtechnical analysis
　　
GoldTD:goldTDOnce again falling below the short-term moving average, the moving average began to turn downward, and after several days of sideways trading, gold prices still failed to break through the upper limit368The suppression of the yuan is once again downward,364The support has been lost. Looking at it this way, it would be embarrassing to see multiple orders rise in the future and fall below the expected level363The probability of meta support is gradually increasing. The future market is mainly bearish,368Unbreakable and sustainable high-altitude thinking.
　　
SilverTDTechnical analysis:
　　
SilverTD: SilverTDdayKThe price is still trading at a bullish level, although the bullish potential has not been fully released10The daily moving average is under pressure, and the short-term moving average continues to decline in a bearish pattern. There is room for further downward movement in the short term, and the overall technical structure is weak. In recent times, the market has focused on the downward trend line of prices under pressure, with the Bollinger index moving downward, the moving average maintaining a dead cross volume increase, and the price structure maintaining a volatile bearish pattern. Pay attention to the potential energy of indicator correction, and pay attention to the price below4430Nearby support;Pressure focused attention4650/4680;Short term trading rebounded and pressure bearish orders mainly participated.
　　
　　crude oilMarket trend analysis
　　
Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday（12month15US crude oil fell slightly, continuing the previous two days of declineIEAThe monthly report indicates that oil supply will exceed demand this month and soar significantly next year, whileOmicronThe rapid spread of the Omicron variant is increasing market concerns, and some countries are tightening restrictions to curb the spread of the Omicron variant; There is a risk of further decline in oil prices. However, the news that the US Iran nuclear talks are nearing collapse is expected to provide support for oil prices. In addition, the Saudi Minister of Energy has warned the market not to short sell oil prices.
　　
On the technical side of crude oil, the daily crude oil closed at a bullish candlestick. On the daily structure, the market has recently returned to5Daily offline, and above20The daily confirmation is under pressure, so in the short term, the US oil market may continue to decline. Below, we can focus on the following10Daily line70-69.6Regional competition. If10If the daily line does not break, the market will still choose to10、20Oscillation between daily lines. And if the market falls back10Going offline on a daily basis is likely to indicate that the market will return to a band level adjustment state, or it may reduce cyclical growth and amplify the oscillation range. In terms of intraday operations, Meiyou still focuses on observing the continuation of adjustments, and can rebound from above during the day5Daily line72.5You can try the light warehouse short air again nearby, until72.8Nearby light warehouse filling, with unified stop loss measures73Above, look down at the target70.7-5First reduce the position, change to break even and stop loss, and then look at the remaining orders10Daily line70-69.6Further reduce positions in the area. as for70-69.6Whether the area is short or not depends on the actual situation before making actual adjustments during trading. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for crude oil today was suggested by Jinrui last week, with a focus on high altitude and a secondary focus on low levels. Short term focus above73.0-73.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below69.0-69.5Frontline support.